The race for the title is in full swing in Ligue 1 ahead of the 28th matchday scheduled for this weekend. PSG has only one point ahead of Lens in the standings, but with one match in hand, it remains the overwhelming favorite for the final title according to Opta’s supercomputer and Nielsen’s index.
While PSG may not be the favorite for the final Champions League victory according to Opta’s predictions, the reigning French champion remains the top contender in the race for the Ligue 1 title despite its narrow lead over Lens. PSG currently has just one more point than Lens after 27 matchdays, but with a postponed match against Nantes on April 22.
Assuming no further changes to the schedule, PSG will visit Lens on Matchday 29 on Wednesday, May 13, and it will be interesting to see at that time what the points gap between the two teams is. As PSG faces Toulouse on Friday to kick off Matchday 28 and Lens travels to Lille on Saturday evening, Opta’s supercomputer gives PSG a 95.21% chance of winning the title.
According to Opta’s predictions, PSG is expected to finish Ligue 1 with approximately 78 points while Lens could reach 70 points. However, Opta only gives the Sang et Or a 4.79% chance of snatching the title from PSG, while Marseille, Lille, Lyon, and Monaco have no chance left according to Opta due to their points deficit.
Another statistical and predictive tool, Nielsen’s EuroClub Index, is even more optimistic for PSG, giving them a 99.3% chance of being crowned French champions at the end of Matchday 34, compared to just 0.7% for Lens.
In terms of points, Nielsen predicts 80 points for PSG by the end of Matchday 34, which is 2 more than Opta and 20 more than their current total. With 8 matches remaining in the French championship, both Opta and Nielsen anticipate 6-7 PSG victories, or even 5 victories and 3 draws.
While these calculations favor PSG, the ultimate truth lies on the field, and being the favorite in surveys or predictions does not guarantee lifting a trophy.
