In a matter of days, the rise of tensions in the Gulf has been enough to make global markets react. Oil prices are on the rise again, investors are worried, and states are closely monitoring the situation. At the heart of the tensions: the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage through which a crucial part of the world’s oil passes.
Should we see this as the beginning of a new oil shock or simply another crisis in a structurally unstable region? In the “Je pense donc j’agis” show on RCF Notre Dame, Melchior Gormand talks with General Dominique Trinquand, author of the book “D’un monde à l’autre,” and Frédéric Encel, PhD HDR in geopolitics, author of the book “La guerre mondiale n’aura pas lieu.”
A crisis that shakes markets more than supplies
The first consequence of this crisis is immediate: oil prices react strongly. Every tension in the Gulf leads to an increase, fueled by uncertainty and perceived risks on maritime routes. But for specialists, the extent of the phenomenon needs to be put into perspective. “We are not in 1973,” notes Frédéric Encel, emphasizing that the market today is much more diversified and less dependent on one region. A similar observation is made by Dominique Trinquand, who highlights the European evolution: “Europe no longer depends on oil from the Gulf in the same way,” thanks to the diversification of sources of supply.
On the other hand, markets remain extremely sensitive. Shipowners hesitate to cross a more dangerous zone, insurers raise their rates, and investors anticipate risks. This results in a rapid price increase, sometimes disconnected from the reality of stocks. “Markets react in a second,” emphasizes Dominique Trinquand, referring to volatility amplified by algorithms and political announcements. For Frédéric Encel, this dynamic is enough to create “a mini oil shock,” without necessarily leading to a major energy crisis. In other words, it is not so much the lack of oil that worries today as the fear of a potential blockage.
Strong geopolitical tension, but no global tipping point
If the crisis is serious, it does not mean an entry into a world war. According to Frédéric Encel, the conditions simply are not there: “There are currently no military blocs comparable to those of the two world wars.” On the international stage, major powers are advancing cautiously. The United States intervenes but without total commitment. China, on the other hand, remains in the background and observes carefully. “They are tallying the points,” analyzes Dominique Trinquand, assessing American capabilities and their room for maneuver.
In this context, oil becomes a strategic tool among others, used to influence the balance of power without necessarily triggering direct conflict. Furthermore, the role of the Gulf is evolving. “We are no longer just talking about oil and gas,” recalls Dominique Trinquand, mentioning the development of other sectors such as fertilizers, aluminum, or industrial components. This diversification reinforces the region’s importance in the global economy.
On the European side, the strategy remains cautious. It is about securing supplies while avoiding military escalation. According to Frédéric Encel, France maintains “a coherent position,” based on respect for international law and regional stability. Finally, one factor remains: American unpredictability. The geopolitician mentions a policy guided by an assumed “mercantilism,” where decisions are primarily based on economic interests, contributing to overall uncertainty.
