For years, geopolitics was not a real subject of attention for most businesses. The domain was reserved for analysts, policymakers, and multinational corporations with distant interests. That time is changing. Currently, geopolitics is no longer an external factor but the framework in which businesses operate and, in some cases, must ensure their continuity.
The belief that risk always manifests itself visibly and measurably persists. In practice, it is often the opposite. The first signs of tension usually do not show in quarterly results or margins but in the conditions imposed by insurers and lenders. Ignoring these signals often means being behind. Companies that wait for financial indicators are, by definition, lagging behind.
What fundamentally distinguishes the current environment is not just the increase in risks, but their more diffuse and systemic nature. Focusing on material damages – a factory, a ship, an installation – obscures the bigger picture.
Most of the impact increasingly comes from disruptions: goods that do not arrive or arrive too late, contract delays, late payments. It is rarely spectacular failures but a series of deviations that slowly unbalance companies.
This is precisely where the risk lies. Because these disruptions affect not only the activity but also the trust between partners, in supply chains, and in markets. Liquidity tensions are often the first visible sign, long before the operational impact fully manifests.
At the same time, the way credit is assessed is evolving. Historical performance remains important but comparatively less. Financiers are paying more attention to current signals, such as payment behavior, transparency in the supply chain, flexibility in contracts, and structures.
This generates a new reality where information becomes a real competitive advantage. Companies that can clearly articulate their risks and support them generally have easier access to capital. Conversely, for those who cannot, conditions become harsher more quickly, and financing becomes more expensive.
Perhaps even more important, a new strategic concept is emerging: insurability. While insurance used to be the last step of a decision, it is becoming a prerequisite.
Not all risks are transferable. Each activity is not insurable in all circumstances. This directly impacts the feasibility of some projects and transactions. Companies that underestimate this aspect will face higher costs and may also be hindered in their ability to act.
In this context, the role of solutions such as political risk insurance is also evolving. What was once a niche market has now become an essential element and a strategic pillar.
The calendar is also essential in this regard. Companies that start thinking ahead have more options. Those who wait until the volatility is visible face a toughened market where conditions are less negotiable.
This dynamic challenges a fundamental principle of recent decades: maximum efficiency. Globalization revolved around optimization – cost reduction, supply chain rationalization, just-in-time deliveries. Currently, the focus is shifting towards resilience.
Redundancy, diversification, and transparency are no longer a luxury but a necessity. This incurs additional costs, but the real question is: what is the price of inaction? In many sectors, this latent cost turns out to be ultimately much higher.
However, this does not mean that markets are closing in. Capital and insurance capacities are still available. But they are becoming more selective, more critical, and evolving rapidly with changing circumstances.
The real fracture line is not about the absence or presence of risks within companies – this frontier does not practically exist. It lies between organizations that understand, document, and proactively adjust their risk profile, and those that do not systematically do so.
In this context, waiting becomes a risk in itself. When the global situation becomes clearer, markets have usually already adjusted – and some margin of action has vanished.
Geopolitics is no longer an isolated risk to manage among others. It is the broader framework within which all operational, financial, and strategic decisions are made. Companies that realize this expand their scope of action. The rest play a game with changed rules.
– Jelle Cortoos, Head of Structured Credit and Surety, BeLux, Aon
