The author is a researcher associated with the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, where his work focuses on the study and analysis of American politics.
As the 2024 election year began, many analysts saw the most imminent threat to Joe Biden’s reelection not in his cognitive state, the economic situation, or even Donald Trump, but rather in the divide that was emerging within his electorate regarding Israel.
The harsh response of the Netanyahu government to the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, sparked a wave of outrage, mainly on university campuses and among young Democratic and left-leaning voters. They demanded, at the very least, a reassessment of American support for Israel. Some even started chanting “Genocide Joe” in protests where the outgoing president was held partly responsible for the deaths of thousands of Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
Despite diplomatic pressures on Netanyahu, there was no material change in the U.S. administration’s stance. The Washington Biden had known throughout his half-century career had never questioned the sacrosanct relationship with Israel since the state’s creation after World War II.
Biden maintained this course until he dropped out of the race, and Kamala Harris took over, limiting discussions on the Middle East until the end of the campaign. Other issues took center stage, and the new president monopolized daily attention.
Two years later, at the peak of the American-Israeli alliance in the war against Iran, the cracks were more visible than ever. Not in the seats of power, as Washington remained unchanged, but in the real country, yes.
There is, of course, the noticeable rift among Donald Trump supporters, including some of the loudest voices, who feel rightly deceived by Trump’s blatant violation of his promise to be an anti-war president who would end the U.S. role as the world’s policeman, especially in the Middle East. Commentators like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene often criticize the Trump administration for being too supportive of Israel.
In the days leading up to the bombardments in Iran, Carlson conducted an interview with the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, criticizing the Washington-Jerusalem relationship as “toxic.”
The dissenting voices are not limited to Republican elites but also present among voters. A recent national poll showed varying opinions among Republican, Independent, and Democratic voters regarding U.S. support for Israel.
The transformation seen in the Republican ranks reflects a gradual change observed over the past decade, previously seen in the Democratic camp and still ongoing.
Two governors, Josh Shapiro and Gavin Newsom, now top the list as likely Democratic presidential candidates for 2028, showcasing the growing division. The Democratic Party may no longer be able to ignore internal discontent on the Israeli issue and will have to address it openly.
Criticism from both left and right often faces accusations of anti-Semitism from staunch pro-Israel supporters. However, the impact of such accusations may be diminishing.
Following the onset of the war with Iran, American and Israeli officials felt it was a “propitious moment” to strike. This coincided with a Gallup poll indicating a shift in American sympathies towards Palestinians over Israelis for the first time.
In such a context, how long can Washington avoid scrutiny over its “special relationship” with Israel?
