The Middle Eastern war may be on the brink of a new escalation, with civilian populations likely to suffer. Yesterday, Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, which anyone familiar with the Tehran regime would have predicted to be rejected. That’s exactly what happened.
Trump has given Iran 48 hours to lift the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to bomb the country’s power plants if they fail to comply. Unsurprisingly, Iranian regime hardliners have rejected this ultimatum and are now threatening to target equivalent installations in the region.
Despite three weeks of intensive bombing, Tehran has shown a remarkable ability to respond in kind, striking gas sites, the city of Dimona (where an Israeli nuclear center is located), and even the Anglo-American base of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, 4,000 km away. The Iranian intentions to retaliate should Trump’s threats be carried out should be taken seriously.
Context: Tensions between the US and Iran are escalating, with threats of military action on both sides.
Fact Check: The article discusses political tensions and potential military action, without providing concrete evidence or sources.
President Trump continues to underestimate Iranian capabilities. He fails to recognize that Iran is not waging a conventional war, but rather following a strategy of chaos developed over many years.
The Iranian regime has long prepared for this scenario, using the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz to leverage oil and gas prices in their favor. Their threats against US-allied Arab countries in the Gulf are a last resort weapon that could upset regional balance.
The regime believes its survival depends on making the cost of war so high that Trump will back off before facing political backlash at home. Currently, the US president is choosing escalation, with all the associated risks.
Should Trump decide to send troops on the ground, even for limited operations like capturing the Kharg Island and its oil terminals, the conflict could become prolonged, costly, and unpopular.
Threatening to attack power plants, Trump disregards the potential war crime of targeting civilian infrastructure. This is further complicated by Russian actions in Ukraine, where civilian infrastructures, especially power facilities, have been targeted.
This Israeli-American war is far from over, and in three weeks, it has exposed the flaws of anticipating the endurance of a crippled yet operational regime. Trump needs to find a way out, but all signs point to a dangerous escalation, with Iranian civilians likely to be the first victims under the guise of protecting them in the first place.
