Discussions between Tehran and Washington: will they lead to an agreement and if so, when? Iran reported progress in negotiations with the United States on Monday towards ending the war permanently, but ruled out the prospect of an imminent agreement. Donald Trump, on the other hand, emphasized the importance of achieving an “excellent” text.
With the visit of the chief of the Pakistani army to Tehran acting as a mediator, extensive diplomatic contacts in the Gulf, and positive statements from both sides, the situation, stuck for weeks, seems to have been unblocked since Saturday. This development has eased markets, where oil prices fell below $100 per barrel on Monday.
Trump wants an “excellent” agreement or nothing
“It is true that we have reached a conclusion on many of the issues under discussion,” said the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday, Esma’il Baghaei. “But to say that the signing of an agreement is imminent, no one can assert that,” he nuanced, accusing Washington of being fickle.
The American president has also tempered hopes for a quick conclusion. “Either the agreement with Iran will be an excellent and meaningful agreement, or there will be no agreement,” he wrote on Truth Social, while his Israeli ally wishes to “completely eliminate the nuclear threat” – a point Tehran is not ready to address immediately. As part of the peace plan, Trump asks Saudi Arabia and Qatar to sign the Abraham Accords, which aim to normalize relations with Israel.
Triggered on February 28 by an American-Israeli attack on Iran, the conflict has spread across much of the Middle East, claiming thousands of lives, especially in Iran and Lebanon, where the pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement joined hostilities in early March by targeting Israeli territory. A ceasefire has been in place between Iran and the United States since April 8, but the global economy continues to be shaken by the near-blockade of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz by Iran for more than three months.
Iran opens the door to compromise on Hormuz
Appearing to open the door to a compromise, Iran has spoken of “navigation services” fees rather than tolls imposed on ships transiting through the strait. In return, it demands the lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports, which Donald Trump said he wanted to maintain “until an agreement is concluded, certified, and signed.” In the midst of behind-the-scenes negotiations, China, whose more than half of oil imports by sea come from the Middle East, mainly through the strait, welcomed Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to Beijing on Monday.
Iran is demanding the release of part of its assets at the first stage and the establishment of a clear mechanism to ensure the release of other funds, according to an “informed source” cited by the Tasnim agency. Disagreements persist on the subject, which is crucial for an Iran weakened by decades of sanctions and war, according to analyst Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. “There is no doubt that without reconstruction, its future would be at stake,” he explains.
According to a source close to the discussions, the governor of the Central Bank of Iran, as well as the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the country’s chief negotiator, are visiting Doha on Monday to discuss the blocking of funds. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured on Sunday that Donald Trump had “the right” of Israel to defend itself.
Hezbollah’s leader, Na’im Qassem, expressed hope that the agreement between Washington and Tehran would include Lebanon. However, the leader of the Shiite movement once again rejected direct negotiations between the Lebanese government and Israel, with a fourth session scheduled to begin in early June in Washington, and warned that disarmament of his organization, demanded by Lebanese authorities, would materialize an “Israeli project”. Israeli strikes have killed more than 3,100 people in Lebanon and displaced over a million.
