While Havana threatens Florida and Guantanamo with drone reprisals in the event of an American offensive, the Cuban army relies primarily on popular guerrilla tactics to compensate for its aging equipment. An overview of an asymmetrical power struggle where the island’s resistance capability relies on its citizen mobilization.
A week ago, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel promised a “bloodbath” if Washington opted for a military offensive on the island, claiming “the absolute and legitimate right to defend itself.” But faced with the United States, does Havana even have the possibility to defend itself? On paper, after the recent acquisition of over 300 military drones, Havana is now considering several retaliation scenarios, threatening, among others, the American naval base at Guantanamo and the town of Key West in Florida, just 140 kilometers north of Havana, according to information shared by the media Axios.
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On paper, Cuba’s military budget and equipment remain very limited compared to the American superpower. A recent study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that the Cuban armed forces total between 40,000 to 50,000 active soldiers… far from the 1.3 million soldiers in the American army. Cuba can also rely on its T-55 and T-62 tanks, and overall, on somewhat aging Soviet-origin artillery. Its strength? A meager support from Russia and China: Beijing and Moscow have developed high-technology spy installations for electromagnetic intelligence gathering (SIGINT) on the island.
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However, Cuba’s anti-air defense remains a real weak point. The island has a limited number of operational but aging fighters (MiG-21, MiG-23, MiG-29)… Cuba’s real defense strength lies in its mobilization capability and geography. In the event of a significant American military intervention on the island, Cuban authorities rely on the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of armed and trained citizens in urban and rural guerrilla warfare. Not certain, however, that Washington will opt for this alternative.
