Two opinion surveys released Thursday evening offer contrasting views of the political balance in Israel, revealing significant discrepancies both in the distribution of seats and in the power struggle between blocs.
According to a survey by Channel 14, Likoud led by Benjamin Netanyahu would remain the country’s leading party with 34 seats. The Joint List would secure 13 mandates, while a party led by Naftali Bennett would reach 11 seats. Behind, Shas would gather 10 seats, and the United Torah Judaism, the Democrats, and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party would each be credited with 9 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit would obtain 8 mandates, Yesh Atid 5, and Religious Zionism 4. Blue and White would remain below the electoral threshold. In this projection, the right-wing bloc would have a comfortable majority of 65 seats.
The picture painted by N12 differs significantly. Likud would fall to 27 seats, while the “Bennett 2026” list would jump to 21 mandates. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan, would secure 11 seats, and Yashar 10. Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Otzma Yehudit would each be credited with 9 seats, while Yesh Atid and the United Torah Judaism would secure 7. The Arab parties Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al would reach 5 seats each. Several parties, including Blue and White and Religious Zionism, would remain below the threshold.
In this second scenario, the opposition would come out on top with 68 seats, compared to 52 for the coalition parties. These discrepancies illustrate the persistent uncertainty of the Israeli political landscape and the crucial impact of future alliances to come.
