ANALYSIS

Print the article

By Olivier d’Auzon – Discover his latest book at Erick Bonnier: AFRICA 3.0

The Strait of Hormuz, a barometer of global disorder

While Washington is embroiled in the ongoing turmoil of the Middle East, another power is quietly and remarkably strategically effective: China.

The crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has abruptly reminded the West of a reality that is often underestimated: a limited disturbance in the Gulf is enough to disrupt the global economy.

This maritime artery concentrates a vital portion of global energy flows; even a partial blockage is enough to cause inflationary shocks, logistical tensions, and market nervousness.

Beijing is well aware of this.

As the world’s largest importer of Gulf hydrocarbons, China structurally depends on regional energy stability. Prolonged increases in oil prices weaken its industrial competitiveness, undermine its supply chains, and threaten a still fragile economic recovery.

Beijing rejects chaos but exploits American weakness

China can certainly gain geopolitical advantage from a fragmented America across multiple fronts – Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East – but it cannot tolerate prolonged chaos in the Gulf.

The events of May 6, 2026, demonstrated this.

On that day, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi in Beijing. His message was clear: reopening of maritime routes and diplomatic resolution of tensions between Washington and Tehran.

At the same time, oil markets saw a significant downward correction, apparently convinced that a gradual return to normalcy was emerging.

The signal is clear: markets are beginning to integrate a now credible assumption of discreet Chinese pressure on Tehran.

Beijing understands that prolonged instability in Hormuz would directly threaten its fundamental economic interests.

Chinese strategy: discreet pressure, maximal influence

At the same time, China carefully avoids appearing as a strategic ally of the United States. It has no intention of openly assisting Washington in avoiding new regional entanglements.

From the Chinese perspective, an America absorbed in external crises remains a weakened America.

Persistent inflation, budget imbalances, political polarization, military overextension: the United States currently shows signs of a power under permanent stress.

But Beijing differentiates between tactically useful weakening and systemic disorder.

According to several diplomatic sources, the current framework under discussion includes a suspension of Iranian uranium enrichment, gradual easing of sanctions, partial thawing of Iranian assets, and a gradual normalization of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran, the Gulf, and Washington: all forced to deal with Beijing

This evolving dynamic reveals an ongoing geopolitical transformation.

Iran needs China, the only power capable of providing both economic relief and diplomatic cover simultaneously.

The Gulf monarchies also need Beijing, as it has become one of the few actors maintaining operational relationships with all regional powers.

Even more significantly, Washington itself now seems compelled to deal with this rising power.

The Trump-Xi summit on May 14 and 15, 2026 in Beijing could take on a dimension far beyond the simple Sino-American bilateral relationship. It could become the actual stabilization conference on Iran.

The silent geopolitical shift

This may be the major strategic shift of our time: the United States retains military power; China is gradually assuming the role of an unavoidable arbitrator.

Washington still projects strength. Beijing is beginning to dictate the balances.