48.7 million readers were called this Sunday, March 15, to choose their mayors and municipal councilors in 34,994 municipalities, with approximately 900,000 candidates. The majority of municipalities (93%), with only one or two lists to share, found out who their mayors were on Sunday evening. The outlook for the second round next Sunday appears complex, marked by multiple variable equations, very close or unpredictable, with discussions and alliances that could prove crucial.
The erosion of participation continued simultaneously, in an election traditionally of interest to the French. Various polling institutes estimate a participation rate between 56% and 58.5%, compared to 63.55% in 2014, continuing a decline observed for more than forty years, particularly among young people and in working-class neighborhoods. The situation in the Middle East may have overshadowed the end of the campaign and the issues of these municipal elections. Not to mention the consequences of the disappearance of the mixed ballot system, which existed in small towns with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants and allowed voters to strike off or add a name from the list.
In Paris, the PS-Green candidate Emmanuel Grégoire leads significantly (36.5%) ahead of Rachida Dati (24.9%, The Republicans). Sophia Chikirou (13.7%, LFI) and Pierre-Yves Bournazel (11.8%, Horizons) also qualified, according to an Ipsos BVA Cesi estimate.
The Socialist Party also leads widely in Rennes, Strasbourg, and Montpellier. In Lyon, outgoing ecologist Gregory Doucet and Jean-Michel Aulas appear neck-and-neck at 37.5% (Ifop-Fiducial estimation). Bordeaux, where the incumbent mayor, ecologist Pierre Hurmic, narrowly leads over Macronist Thomas Cazenave.
In Marseille, incumbent left-wing mayor Benoît Payan goes head-to-head with National Rally candidate Franck Allisio. In Nice, the duel between incumbent Christian Estrosi and UDR Eric Ciotti, allied with the RN, favors the latter by about ten points.
In Le Havre, former Prime Minister and president of the centrist party Horizons Edouard Philippe appears significantly ahead at around 43%, followed by PCF candidate Jean-Paul Lecoq around 33% and UDR and RN candidate Franck Keller around 15%, according to provisional results.
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced the victory of the list in which he ranks third in Vernon (Eure).
For the National Rally, Louis Aliot is reelected in Perpignan in the first round with 51.4% of the votes. The largest city in France led by the RN. While in Toulon, according to Elabe, RN deputy Laure Lavalette, running without a label, is far ahead of incumbent mayor Josée Massi (center-right), with about 40% of the votes but with few reserves for the second round. Yann Traiteur’s victory in Nomexy, Vosges, marks the first RN win in the Vosges. And David Rachline, a former heavyweight of the National Rally hampered by a series of legal affairs, announced his reelection in Fréjus, Var, for a third term with 51.33% of the votes.
Former Socialist Minister of Overseas Ericka Bareigts announced her reelection in Saint-Denis, the capital of La Réunion. In New Caledonia, the Loyalists, the hardline non-independence branch, are significantly ahead of their more moderate competitors in Nouméa. Meanwhile, the National Union for Independence (UNI) is decreasing compared to the FLNKS.
The successor to Martine Aubry as mayor of Lille, Arnaud Deslandes (PS), is neck-and-neck with his LFI competitor Lahouaria Addouche, positioning the ecologists as referees, according to estimates.
In Roubaix (Nord), the Insoumises candidate David Guiraud is widely ahead (46.5%), seen as one of the main chances for LFI victory, according to an Ifop-Fiducial estimate for TF1-LCI and Sud Radio, distancing the list of incumbent center-right mayor Alexandre Garcin (20.3%).
Televised voting results and relevant calls for the second round are in progress, with parties encouraging alliances to secure wins against their opponents. This situation requires careful consideration to determine the results of the 2020 municipal elections.
