The European Union’s dependence on American liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to increase further next year as the EU continues its efforts to gradually end imports of Russian fossil fuels, according to a new analysis published by the IEEFA on Wednesday.
The report suggests that the United States could supply more than two-thirds of European LNG imports by 2026, strengthening Washington’s dominant position in the continent’s gas market following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war in Iran, which have reshaped global energy flows.
The IEEFA estimates that the United States already accounted for 57% of European LNG imports in 2025, a significant increase from pre-war levels.
The organization warns that this share could continue to rise in the coming years if current import trends persist and new long-term supply contracts come into effect.
These findings come as most European governments aim to completely eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027 as part of the European Commission’s REPowerEU strategy.
Since 2022, EU member states have rapidly increased their purchases of LNG, particularly from the United States, to offset the decline in Russian gas deliveries via pipelines.
The IEEFA believes that this shift has improved Europe’s energy security in the short term but also highlights a growing risk of concentration.
The think tank argues that replacing dependence on Russian gas with a strong reliance on another single supplier could expose Europe to future political and market instabilities.
Demand Decline, but Increase in Imports and Investments
The report highlights that American LNG imports are generally more expensive than pipeline gas due to liquefaction, maritime transport, and re-gasification costs.
The IEEFA estimates that EU countries spent about 117 billion euros on American LNG imports between early 2022 and mid-2025.
Several European policymakers and regulators have cautioned against excessive dependence on imported LNG.
Earlier this year, European Commission Executive Vice-President Teresa Ribera stated that the bloc should avoid replacing one energy dependency with another and instead accelerate investments in renewable energies and electrification.
The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators has also expressed concerns about the supply concentration risks associated with the increasing role of American LNG in the European market.
This surge in LNG imports comes as gas consumption in Europe has been declining more broadly in recent years.
The spike in prices after the energy crisis, weak industrial activity, energy-saving measures, and faster deployment of renewable energies have all contributed to the demand reduction.
IEEFA data shows that European LNG imports declined in 2024, with gas consumption reaching its lowest level in over a decade. However, imports rebounded in 2025 as colder weather conditions and government efforts to replenish stocks took place.
Meanwhile, several EU countries continue to expand their LNG import infrastructures.
Germany, which previously relied heavily on Russian gas via pipelines, has rapidly developed floating LNG terminals and emerged as one of the major buyers of American LNG in Europe.
Analysts are also questioning the risk of Europe building excess LNG import capacities as long-term gas demand is expected to weaken further during the energy transition in the coming years.
