Explaining the Victory of Brexit in June 2016
The victory of Brexit (at 51.9%) in the referendum of June 23, 2016 was a blow to the EU because it was the first time that the distrust of European construction appeared so clearly. Voters had the choice between two responses: “Remain a member of the European Union” or “Leave the European Union.”
With little expectation that “Leave” would win, it is no mystery that Britain has had a reluctant relationship with the EU since joining in 1973. The British have often been disruptive and have always rejected the idea of a federal Europe or at least an increasingly integrated Europe in fiscal, social, or environmental matters. Their reluctance to participate in European solidarity – notably in agriculture – their rejection of Schengen agreements, and their refusal of Eurozone unity all indicated how their integration was not a given.
To understand why “Leave” won, three reasons can easily be identified from the debates at the time: immigration – mainly from Eastern Europe, the desire to maintain sovereignty – with the belief that decisions made in the Westminster Parliament should prevail over those voted on in the European Parliament or decided by the Brussels Commission, and the sense of belonging to a great country whose destiny transcends the European framework. The arguments from those campaigning for “Remain,” like Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, mainly focused on economic issues and the likely difficulties of leaving the EU. Within his own party, many were Brexit supporters, including Boris Johnson. On the side of the Labour Party, while most members campaigned for “Remain,” their leader Jeremy Corbyn showed little enthusiasm, being himself Eurosceptic. Another prominent figure was Nigel Farage, leader of the UKIP (UK Independence Party), which had advocated for Brexit since its founding in 1993.
The desire to take back control, to be sovereign once again, and for citizens to decide the future of a country – and not technocrats from Strasbourg or Brussels – undoubtedly heavily influenced the Brexit victory.
Of course, while political configurations partly explain the victory of “Leave,” history also reminds us how the British, who dominated the world and seas for many decades, who showed their tenacity during World War II, who maintained privileged ties with their former colonies through the Commonwealth, and who cultivate a “Special relationship” with the United States, have a high regard for themselves and believe they are capable of managing their affairs autonomously. The speech delivered by Prime Minister Theresa May at the Conservative Party Congress in October 2016 is revealing: she speaks of a “global Britain” that will become sovereign again and no longer subject to supranational institutions.
How Have Relations with Europe Evolved Since the UK’s Exit from the EU?
Initially, it is important to note that the exit from the EU was negotiated over many years as the withdrawal of a signatory country had not been previously envisaged. It was only with the Lisbon Treaty in 2007 that it became possible for a country to request to leave the EU by activating Article 50. This is what Prime Minister Theresa May did on March 29, 2017.
From then on, negotiations were intense with Michel Barnier – appointed as the EU’s chief negotiator in charge of conducting negotiations with the UK – and became even more so when Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May in July 2019.
Several points were set as priorities by the EU: ensuring the rights and equal treatment of British citizens and those of the European Union living and working respectively on the continent and in the UK (including freedom of movement); ensuring that the UK would cover all costs associated with its exit from the EU and honor all financial commitments made during its membership.
The UK officially left the EU on January 31, 2020, with a transition period during which negotiations continued between the two parties on the framework of their future relationship. Decisions definitively came into effect on January 1, 2021, with the UK’s final departure from the Single Market and the customs union.
Soon after, tensions arose regarding specific issues such as the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, as well as fishing rights in British waters, leading to strained relations in the years following Brexit.
It was not until the arrival of Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in October 2022 that things began to calm down: the disputes over Ireland were resolved (in 2023), and the UK decided to reintegrate European scientific research and innovation programs (in 2024).
Since then, the current Labour Prime Minister in office since July 2024, Keir Starmer, has shown a willingness to approach his European counterparts and aims to “reset” relations between the UK and the EU. A first post-Brexit summit was held in May 2025 in London. This meeting led to the signing of a defense and security pact, foreseeing enhanced cooperation in areas such as military, intelligence, and cybersecurity. Discussions also began between the two parties on youth mobility and energy cooperation, leading to compromises on fishing rights.
The current objective is to build a beneficial relationship for all in a period of geopolitical reconfiguration, establishing strong economic, scientific, military, and diplomatic ties between the UK and the EU, essential given the complexity of the world and geopolitical imbalances that require all European countries to find a united voice and impactful initiatives on the world stage.
What Are the Economic, Political, and Social Consequences of Brexit on the UK?
The economic impacts in terms of trade and investment for businesses were significant, particularly after the UK’s withdrawal from the Single Market on January 1, 2021. This led to a deep reorganization of the country’s economic functioning, although companies had anticipated the effects. The decline in trade with EU countries, the contraction of the job market, and many relocations in the service sector (banks and financial institutions) to access the Single Market all contributed to an economic slowdown and increased trade deficit. Additionally, Brexit brought administrative complexities for exporting companies.
The promise to “take back control,” especially in terms of immigration, was not fulfilled. While European immigration was replaced by immigration from former British colonies (India, Pakistan, Nigeria), illegal immigration continued to rise and remains a challenging issue for the government to address.
It is clear that many Britons now regret Brexit (referred to as “Bregret”): economic promises have not materialized, European tourism has slowed down (EU citizens now require visas to travel to the UK), and migration remains a pressing issue. The expected and hoped-for change has not come to fruition.
While Brexit promises have not been fully realized, it would be inaccurate to say that the country has declined. The UK’s economic trajectory is similar to its neighbors’, with higher growth than France in 2025 and a lower public debt. London’s financial sector remains essential, and the country remains an attractive destination for foreign investment. Furthermore, the UK is seeking to strengthen its trade relations with the US (since the May 2025 agreement) and with Commonwealth countries. Additionally, the UK benefits from a free trade agreement with the EU.
While the departure of the UK from the EU may be regrettable, it is likely a collective failure as decisions made, often remotely by the Strasbourg Parliament or the Brussels Commission, and the failure of continental Europeans to convince the British of their place in European construction are factors to consider.
The question today is not about revoting or imagining a return to the EU, as the Brexit process has been complicated enough. The current goal is to build strong economic, scientific, military, and diplomatic relationships between the UK and the EU, essential given the complexity of the world and the geopolitical imbalances that require all European countries to find a voice that resonates and initiatives that matter on the international stage.
FAQs
Is Brexit a Case Study for Geopolitical Studies?
In the current international context, which gives states renewed authority, Brexit is an interesting case study, even though it should not be detached from its unique context. It addresses questions related to national sovereignty, democratic expression, institutional principles, and regional power relationships. These are precisely the issues covered in the teachings offered by the Magistère “Geopolitical Emergences: History and Contemporary Institutional Challenges” at the Catholic Institute of Paris (ICP).
What Does This Magistère Entail?
The Magistère “Geopolitical Emergences” at ICP is a graduate program leading to the equivalent of a Bac+5 degree. This curriculum offers a dual education (Magistère + bachelor’s and/or master’s degrees) covering a historical approach to international relations and institutions, with a focus on new international balances, strategic analysis of conflicts, the role of religion in the new geopolitical landscape, international security, and emerging defense issues.
This Magistère equips students with essential tools to decrypt major geopolitical principles and the reconfigurations of the contemporary world. It prepares them for careers in consultancy, strategic intelligence, journalism, or defense.
What is the Institute Ozanam, and Why is it Important for Studying European Crises?
Institute Ozanam is an institute within ICP with a mission to educate free and demanding minds in service of the common good. Inspired by the intellectual legacy of Frédéric Ozanam – jurist, foreign literature professor, and thinker of social democracy in the 19th century – the institute offers interdisciplinary training merging political science, geopolitics, and humanitarian studies, complemented by undergraduate and graduate programs. Faced with crises like Brexit that deeply question the democratic and institutional foundations of Europe and in the face of geopolitical emergences reshaping the international balance, the programs at Institute Ozanam aim to provide students with tools to analyze, contextualize, and anticipate the major transformations of the world. Tomorrow’s world requires informed citizens armed with a solid general culture and profiles capable of deciphering ongoing political and human dynamics to innovate, adapt, and engage in society.
