Can we talk about a historic visit by the American president?
A visit to China would in itself be very important. But this is indeed a historic trip, as it comes at a time when America has never been so isolated on the international stage, while China has never embodied stability to such an extent.
For the first time in centuries, a leader from the Western world is visiting in a position of weakness towards another leader. This is a major geopolitical upheaval, a moment that signifies the transition from one world to another. This is the first visit of an American president coming to meet what could be the new “emperor of the world,” Xi Jinping.
Is this isolation and American decline mainly due to the actions of the Trump administration, or can it be seen in light of the increasingly important role China plays in the world?
When Donald Trump returns to power for this second term, he surrounds himself with ideologues who aim to dismantle the international system put in place since 1945. They have managed to isolate the United States like never before: by ending many aids to Africa, thus leaving China and Russia free rein; by threatening to forcibly annex a NATO member, which is a historic first and a blow to Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance; and by pushing Europeans to turn to other partners.
This is both a diplomatic and ideological isolation. The goal of this administration is to return to a system of bilateral relations, where multilateral organizations are marginalized and alliances become purely circumstantial. By destabilizing the old order, the United States has allowed China to emerge as the new force for stability.
The decline of the United States on the international stage was certainly foreseeable, but Donald Trump has significantly accelerated the process.
Seventeen American business leaders are part of the trip. Trump also goes for business purposes…
A large part of this visit is indeed dedicated to economic issues. The Trump administration hopes to obtain concrete benefits, conclude agreements with China, stabilize competition between Washington and Beijing, find reciprocal mechanisms, and work towards the best for the American economy.
Trump is not going there aggressively. On the contrary, he will adopt a conciliatory, almost pleading posture. The relationship is currently unbalanced in favor of China. Economically, it is now the United States that needs China more than the other way around.
How do Americans perceive this trip?
The domestic situation is so difficult that this state visit appears, to the American public, as just another trip.
However, observers are following this visit with a lot of attention. Some are concerned about the concessions that Donald Trump could make to Beijing, for example regarding Taiwan.
What are the American red lines on the Taiwan issue?
If Taiwan is attacked, Washington will not intervene militarily. One must see things as they are: the United States did not directly intervene in Ukraine, they did not send troops to Iran, and there is nothing to indicate that they would be willing to let American soldiers die for Taiwan.
Washington would eventually point out that Taiwan is not recognized as an independent state by either the UN or the European Union. In international law, Beijing considers this issue as a domestic affair.
Chinese intervention in Taiwan will happen one day; the only unknown is the date. The United States will protest, but eventually adapt to the reality on the ground.
For Trump, is this also about saving face before the November midterms?
If Donald Trump comes back from China with many economic agreements and manages to highlight a peaceful relationship with Beijing, this could improve an currently very degraded image.
The November elections will not be won thanks to this single visit. What could really change the political dynamic would be an honorable resolution to the Iranian conflict and progress on other international issues, notably Cuba. But considering the current polls, the real question is whether the Republicans will suffer a collapse in Congress, or just a limited defeat.
