The Iranians have won: instead of negotiating on uranium and Iranian foreign policy, we first negotiate around the Strait of Hormuz

For the specialist on the Arab world, the Iranians have managed to steer negotiations in their favor with Washington by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. “Where will the enriched uranium go?” Hasni Abidi questions in “La Matinale” on May 7th. Political scientist, specialist in the Arab world and director of the Center for Arab and Mediterranean Studies (Cermam) in Geneva, Hasni Abidi decrypts the stakes of the new phase of negotiations between Iran and the United States in “La Matinale” on Thursday, May 7th, as Donald Trump mentions an imminent agreement between the two parties. Jean-Baptiste Marteau: The statements made by Donald Trump should be taken with caution. But when he talks about a very promising agreement in recent hours, while at the same time threatening Iran to resume fighting if they do not sign this agreement, are you more optimistic or pessimistic about a possible end to the war? Hasni Abidi: He threatens because he wants to exert pressure on the Iranians, as we are waiting for a response from them. The study of the American proposal stopped when the Americans launched this operation, which was rejected by the Iranians. Today, the Iranians are studying this response. The Pakistanis play a central role, in my opinion, and it is the first time that they are not only facilitators, but are involved in the content. I think there is a common ground between the American proposal and the Iranian proposal, as we have two agendas. Do you think there is potential for convergence, even though it is still the same original document, with 14 proposals on the table? And last week, it seemed that they were hardly acceptable, especially for the United States. What does this mean? Will Donald Trump have to accept many concessions? There are still some differences. The Iranians demand international guarantees, which are not included in the American proposal. The Iranians request to separate the two issues, the two initial phases. The ceasefire phase is separated from the agreement, meaning negotiations that will last a month. The Iranians have always asked for a ceasefire, and then they will negotiate. That’s why it’s called a “framework agreement”. On the other hand, the Americans achieve the suspension of uranium enrichment and its potential transfer to another country. That’s a positive point for them. Jean-Mathieu Pernin: It has been negotiated for 20 years, 25 years, we’re not sure anymore. Nonetheless, we see that Iran says, “But everyone else is doing it, why not us?” This is their main argument. After all, one could say that it is indeed a dictatorship, a totalitarian regime, but in your opinion, is this argument convincing to other nations, particularly European ones? Yes, the Europeans agree. The Iranians say, “We can suspend, but for 15 years.” Now the question is: where will this enriched uranium go? That is the question. There are several alternatives: China, Russia, and even the American proposal. That is, the Americans buying this enriched uranium. And that is a very important element. Jean-Baptiste Marteau: Do you find this option credible? Because initially we thought that Iran would never agree to remove this enriched uranium, which is somewhat their trophy, their number one bargaining chip. There is also the Strait of Hormuz. Even better, Donald Trump, in one of his speeches, said that what remains is dust. Today, we are determining the future of this uranium. The question is, first, for there to be a ceasefire. The Iranians are asking for guarantees, and we move on to the second phase, which is indeed the most important, and will likely take place in Geneva. Today, we are faced, above all, with both parties accepting the ceasefire. And with the Strait of Hormuz, yes, you are correct, the Iranians have won. Instead of negotiating on the uranium, nuclear and ballistic program, and Iran’s foreign policy of disruption, we are negotiating first around the Strait of Hormuz, which, it must be remembered, was open before February 28th.