The United States remained close to full employment in April with a stable unemployment rate of 4.3%, according to official data released on Friday. Economists pointed out that it is too early to observe any potential impact of the war in the Middle East. The world’s largest economy created 105,000 jobs during the period, while investors were expecting around 60,000, according to Trading Economics. March had seen even more job creations (185,000).
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is released quickly after the end of the month, is subject to significant revisions. In recent months, there have been sudden fluctuations, with job creations well above expectations as well as dramatic job losses (156,000 in February). On average, net job creations have remained well below the level before Donald Trump returned to power.
This trend did not result in additional unemployment, as the workforce remained stagnant during the period. Economists attribute this to the aging population and the government’s tough immigration policies. “It is still a bit early to fully measure the repercussions of the war on the labor market,” observed KPMG economist Diane Swonk this week, noting that “many companies were counting on a quick resolution” of the conflict that began more than two months ago.
According to her, “we should expect a further weakening (of the labor market) in the coming months, due to rising costs and disruptions in the supply chains.” Guy Berger, an economics professor, also believed that “April is too early” to see an impact. “But if the energy crisis continues into the second half of the year, it could undermine the early signs of recovery in the labor market,” added the labor market specialist.
“While it is still too early to observe the direct repercussions of the Middle East conflict on the labor market, the combination of supply shocks, margin pressures, and uncertainties regarding customs and energy costs is prompting businesses to focus on investments to improve productivity and cost control rather than increasing staff,” highlighted EY economists in parallel.
