Opta’s predictions do not bode well for Olympique de Marseille at the end of the season. According to statistics, the chances of the Phocéens club being without European competition in 2026-2027 are very high.
While the end of the 2024-2025 season was exciting, with a second place secured in the final sprint, the last stretch of this 2025-2026 season has been like a long torment for Marseille supporters. Humiliated on Nantes’ field (3-0, Saturday), OM has suffered its fourth defeat in the last six matches. The Phocéen club has especially jeopardized its chances of being in Europe next season.
Although it was already clear that OM was not on track for Europe, statistics do not give much hope to Olympian fans. Mathematically, Habib Beye’s men can still reach fourth place (which means qualifying for the Champions League preliminary round) as they are five points behind Lille with two games to go. However, according to Opta’s simulations, there is a 0.00% chance of this scenario happening. Out of 10,000 simulations by the supercomputer, none sees OM finishing fourth.
Opta is only slightly more optimistic about the Europa League and the Conference League. According to the statistician, OM has a 19.01% chance of finishing 5th and qualifying for the C3, with a slightly higher probability of 28.04% to finish 6th and qualify for the Conference League.
It is important to note that these probabilities do not take into account the outcome of the French Cup final. If Lens wins against Nice, the second-placed team, already qualified for Europe, would free up a qualifying spot in Europe. Sixth place (currently held by Monaco) would grant a ticket to the Europa League, while seventh place (currently occupied by OM) would qualify for the Conference League.
OM’s probabilities of qualifying for a European competition next season according to Opta (excluding Lens’ victory in the French Cup)
- Champions League (4th): 0.00%
- Europa League (5th): 19.01%
- Conference League (6th): 28.04%
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