The job outlook is little affected by the war in Iran

Zurich (awp) – Swiss companies’ job prospects are not deteriorating, despite the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting rise in oil and gas prices, according to the KOF Institute.

In the second quarter of 2026, the KOF employment indicator stands at 2.2 points, compared to 2.1 points in the first quarter of 2026, as reported on Monday by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (EPFZ) in a regular update. This barometer is based on responses from around 4200 companies surveyed by the KOF in April.

The current value suggests a moderate evolution of the Swiss labor market in the current and upcoming quarter, despite increased geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices.

The employment prospects indicator for the next three months remains unchanged at 2.9 points. The proportion of companies expecting to increase their workforce in the coming months remains higher than those anticipating staff reductions.

Improvement in wholesale trade and manufacturing

Despite the rising energy prices and global supply chain tensions, job prospects in wholesale trade have significantly improved, from -12.1 to -3.7 points.

Similarly, the recovery in the manufacturing industry continues, with the sectoral indicator improving from -8.6 to -5.5 points compared to the previous quarter. However, both sectors remain in negative territory.

On the other hand, job prospects have slightly dimmed in hospitality, retail trade, and other services. The employment indicator in construction remains at a high level, at 10.7 points.

Downward revision

It is worth noting that the value for the first quarter has been revised downwards, from 2.4 to 2.1 points, following additional information from companies surveyed in February and March. This could be related to the start of the war in Iran at the end of February.

Nevertheless, the indicator remains slightly above its long-term average of 1.7 points and has rebounded after temporarily entering negative territory in the third quarter of 2025.

cw/ck