Vincent Lemire, expert in contemporary history, guest on franceinfo

Vincent Lemire, a historian, professor of contemporary history at Gustave-Eiffel University, and author of “Jerusalem: History is Never Written” published by Albin Michel, was the guest on Tout est politique on franceinfo on Saturday, May 2nd.

France Télévisions: Where is Israel heading? Spiral of war, authoritarian escalation, impact on democracy since the trauma of the October 7th massacres. The Israeli society seems to be radicalizing. In your opinion, what is the country plunging into, nearly three years after the October 7th attacks?

Vincent Lemire, historian, professor of contemporary history at Gustave-Eiffel University and author of “Jerusalem: History is Never Written” published by Albin Michel: In a post-traumatic state that never ends. That’s what’s terrible. And why? Because we have a Prime Minister who constantly nurtures this trauma, always moving from one war to another. I have many friends who are leaving Israel at the moment, or preparing to leave Israel, or considering it, or getting passports. The numbers are incredible. In Israel, when doctors have to decide whether to work there, be affiliated in Israel or abroad, 40% of a graduating class says: we’re leaving the country. The country is draining of its elites, its professionals, its doctors, its researchers, its artists, its left as well. On the contrary, the people coming to Israel today cross paths on the plane. For some of them, they come to mend. So, in the short term, for Benjamin Netanyahu, it’s an electoral opportunity. In the long term, for Israel, it’s a disaster.

And how would you describe the wars of Israel, since Benjamin Netanyahu says he has seven. The leaders of Israel talk about an existential war. Are they right?

Benjamin Netanyahu has succeeded in creating this concept of existential war for wars that are generally preventive wars. We go back a little to the 1967 pattern, the Six-Day War, a preventive attack against Egypt. There was an imminent attack by Egypt during the Six-Day War. Here we are a bit like the war against Iraq. We stage a threat, this is not new, it’s his only ideological backbone. Benjamin Netanyahu has always changed his mind on everything, but on Iran he has always remained firm, waiting for this war. It doesn’t bring the desired effects yet in terms of elections, but it keeps the country in a state of extreme tension.

At the same time, the ceasefire is holding, at least in Iran. Is it breaking in Lebanon? We have seen rockets launched by Hezbollah, bombings. On the other hand, is it Donald Trump who is holding Benjamin Netanyahu on Iran?

We can hope so. We don’t even know what to hope for anymore, which one is the most warlike. These ceasefires are always somewhat asymmetrical because there have still been dozens of Lebanese deaths since the ceasefire. Since the ceasefire, there have been 733 deaths in Gaza, an average of 4 per day. So, it’s always a ceasefire on one side. At some point, it eventually breaks. I’m just waiting for rockets to start again in a few days or weeks.

How do you characterize Benjamin Netanyahu’s policy towards Gaza?

It’s eternal war. He only wants one thing, to go back. Today, 2 million Gazans are squeezed into 40% of the territory. That famous red line keeps moving westward. Now, it’s at 41-42%. There are 2 million residents of Gaza living there.

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