In an environment where certainties are fading, it is no longer so much about predicting as it is about remaining prudent.
Between conflicts in the Middle East, increasing fragility in private credit, and investors realigning, the first quarter of 2026 marks a turning point for financial markets, which are evolving in an environment more uncertain than ever.
The initial Israeli-American strikes in late February in Iran propelled the geopolitical risk indicator established by the Financial Times to unprecedented levels since the data began in 1982. A rise in tensions which, contrary to usual reflexes, did not immediately result in a sharp correction in stock markets.
Context: The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on financial markets, focusing on the first quarter of 2026 and the reactions of various asset classes to these tensions.
Fact Check: The information provided in this article reflects the views of Varenne Capital Partners at the time of publication and may be subject to change. It is not a reliable forecast of future market developments.
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