Bitcoin leads the way in the geopolitical turmoil.

Bitcoin Resilience Surprises Financial Markets Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Since the escalation on February 28 in Iran, financial markets have been experiencing an unusual period of stress. In this context, Bitcoin continues to surprise with its resilience, according to CoinShares Research Department.

Since the crisis began, the asset has increased by nearly 23%, while global stocks declined by 3.3% and gold – typically considered a safe haven asset – lost almost 9%. This week, the trend persisted: Bitcoin gained an additional 4.5%, while stock markets and gold remained in negative territory. Investment flows reflect this reality. Digital asset investment products recorded around one billion dollars in net inflows this week, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. This figure demonstrates a shift in perception: Bitcoin is no longer just viewed as a speculative asset, but increasingly as a mainstream macro asset, especially during periods of geopolitical stress and uncertainty in monetary policies.

In terms of macro developments, Kevin Warsh’s hearing before the US Senate regarding his confirmation at the head of the Federal Reserve was the major event of the week. Market participants feared he might confirm presidential influence on the central bank. His responses were reassuring: futures contracts barely moved, and Bitcoin showed no significant reaction. The central scenario remains one of confirmation before the June deadline. As Warsh is expected to be less vocal than Powell on future monetary policy directions, assets sensitive to interest rates could operate in a less predictable environment in the years ahead.

The Strong Performance of Blockchain-related Stocks

The most notable institutional trend this month has been the enthusiasm for blockchain-related stocks. Inflows into this segment reached 615 million dollars since the beginning of the month – a monthly record – with 289 million coming in this week alone. Blockchain stock indices have surged over 12% since the start of the year, with Bitcoin mining benchmarks gaining over 31%, compared to 6.9% for the Nasdaq. Many listed miners are now shifting towards artificial intelligence infrastructure, leveraging their energy contracts and existing data centers to offer computational capacity. For institutional allocators whose mandates exclude direct exposure to crypto assets, these listed vehicles represent a pragmatic entry point.

Lastly, the Clarity Act, clarifying regulatory oversight of the crypto sector in the United States, remains a top concern. The legislative window is closing rapidly: if the bill is not enacted by the end of May, the likelihood of passage drops significantly. Polymarket now shows a 45% chance of adoption. In case of success, the impact would be uneven: Bitcoin and Ethereum are relatively protected, while decentralized finance (DeFi) and broader token markets would be more exposed. In the longer term, the Clarity Act would provide traditional large banks – already active in digital asset custody – with the necessary regulatory framework to expand their activities on a large scale. This would be a more structuring step than any product launch.

Reminder: Crypto ETNs involve significant capital loss risks. Their volatility and exposure to regulatory changes must be considered. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before investing, consult the information sheet and prospectus to assess the suitability of this investment for your profile and financial goals.