Even as they’ve been massively outspent in a Democratic-leaning state, Republicans say they still have a fighting chance to defeat a redistricting referendum in Virginia next week that could help tip the balance of power in the House in this fall’s midterm elections.
Republicans have been clear-eyed about the obstacles they face in urging voters to reject a redrawn congressional map that would pave the way for Democrats to pick up as many as four seats. They are coming off an election just five months ago in which Democrats swept every statewide office on the ballot and expanded their legislative majority.
But while Democrats hold a 3-1 ad spending advantage heading into Tuesday’s special election, that edge has shrunk significantly in recent weeks. And the latest public polling has shown support for the new map with a single-digit lead – much narrower than Democrats’ recent victories in the state.
Republicans have also called on House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., former Gov. Glenn Youngkin and members of Congress to help make the case on the campaign trail in the closing stretch of the race – activity that has been met with similar firepower on the Democratic side.
“We have a lot of momentum on our side,” Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., who participated in several rallies against the new map last weekend, said in an interview. “And as the funding has come in, we’ve been able to do more educating, more outreach to voters.”
Rep. John McGuire, R-Va., who, like Kiggans, will participate in additional rallies this weekend, added that it’s “a neck-and-neck, 50-50 fight right now,” though he declined repeatedly to predict a win for the “no” side.
The recent cash influx has allowed Republicans to eat into Democrats’ spending edge. On March 21, the main group supporting the redistricting referendum, Virginians for Fair Elections, had spent 17 times the amount on ads as the primary group opposing the effort, Virginians for Fair Maps, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
That’s now down to three times the amount. As of Friday, Virginians for Fair Elections had spent $48.2 million, while Virginians for Fair Maps had spent $14.1. Total Democratic spending in the race through Friday is $49.1 million, compared with total GOP spending of $17.2 million. Most of the cash on both sides has flowed in from so-called dark money groups that aren’t required to disclose their donors.
While that disparity is still glaring, Republicans are also encouraged by recent polling that has largely shown the race within the margin of error.
A Washington Post/George Mason University poll out this month showed that Republicans and Republican-leaning independents were more likely to vote in the April 21 race than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Among all likely voters, 52% said they supported the referendum and 47% opposed it, a 5-point edge that was within the survey’s margin of error.
