When three vulnerabilities meet
For a company, a more expensive loan, a rising energy bill, and a nervous market may be enough to break a project. For a family, this quickly translates into higher prices, heavier repayments, and less margin at the end of the month. The real issue is not a single bubble. It is the possibility that several shocks will interact and reinforce each other.
In this story, non-bank finance is as important as the stock market. European regulators are witnessing a rise in risks associated with non-bank intermediaries, while energy prices remain very sensitive to conflict in the Middle East. In France, public debt reached 115.6% of GDP at the end of 2025, and the deficit was 5.1% of GDP. When growth slows, this combination leaves little room for improvisation.
Private credit, useful for some, risky for all
Private credit is simply credit provided by funds rather than banks. It is mainly used by medium-sized companies or those that banks consider too risky for their balance sheets. The market has grown very quickly: the BIS estimates that it now exceeds $2 trillion worldwide. In Europe, private credit funds had around 0.1 trillion euros in assets under management in March 2025, far behind the United States but with rapid growth.
This financing has a real purpose. It provides a breath of fresh air to SMEs or intermediate-sized companies that do not always have access to bond markets. It also benefits investors seeking returns. But the downside is clear: the loans are long, illiquid, and opaque. The BIS warns that the arrival of retail investors through more accessible vehicles can exacerbate tension in case of a downturn. ESMA, meanwhile, describes a small yet more interconnected and opaque universe in Europe. In this scheme, the winners are the managers who collect fees and the investors who receive returns. The potential losers are the most fragile companies and shareholders if exits accelerate.
AI is not only a promise, it is also a bill
Another source of tension comes from artificial intelligence. The issue is not only innovation but also the scale of investments and how to finance them. The International Energy Agency estimates that data centers consumed around 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, approximately 1.5% of global consumption. It projects around 945 TWh in 2030 in its central scenario, with a rapid but still limited increase in the global electrical system.
For now, AI supports activity. The IEA notes that major technology companies continue to increase their spending. The IMF goes further: it sees private investment in AI as a driver of growth but also a classic area of excessive optimism. Its message is simple. Markets like technological disruptions but dislike the corrections that follow when profits are delayed. The IMF also reminds us that the history of major innovations often resembles a mix of enthusiasm and disillusionment.
[Context: The article discusses the challenges and risks associated with the convergence of financial vulnerabilities, private credit, and artificial intelligence in the current economic landscape.]
[Fact Check: The content discusses various financial and economic indicators, global market trends, and regulatory concerns related to private credit, AI investments, and energy disruptions.]
