Buying at the sound of the cannon and selling at the sound of the bugle. The stock market proverb seems relevant, given the conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran for ten days. Is it time to buy when the situation seems threatening, with the goal of selling when it clears up? In other words, to what extent should geopolitics be relied upon for investment? Since the beginning of the 20th century, investors have mostly been right to ignore geopolitical “noise”. But not during extreme events like world wars or the oil shock of 1973-1974.
The logic behind the stock market adage associating cannons and bugles is quite simple. Armed conflicts generally result in declines in financial asset prices. This is therefore the moment when an investor should buy. But this is also when the risk is highest, which can deter many. Historically, those who had the courage or necessary faith have benefited from superior performance, as shown in a study revealed last week, the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026.
