Since the Draghi report, it is known that the European Union is lagging behind economically compared to the United States. Why? Essentially for three reasons, as suggested by our Nobel Prize winner and columnist Philippe Aghion: because Europeans work less than Americans, with a productivity growth rate that is slower than theirs, which is explained in part by significantly lower spending on research and development compared to the other side of the Atlantic.
The solution? Massive investments (especially in R&D), stated the Draghi report, and few economists disagree. However, in France, the state, which is borrowing to finance our social model, has less and less money to invest, and the French, who are saving more and more, prefer to invest in life insurance (largely based on debt) rather than in the stock market or businesses.
War, investments, industry: Europe facing the challenge of resurgence
This economy credit negatively impacts us in the face of international competition, and will, if not careful, compromise our sovereignty. Our citizens are beginning to understand this. This explains some of their pessimism: our social model, financed by debt, is threatening the relative prosperity that made it possible.
I have long relied on Europe to help France break free from its demons (an excessively centralized and spendthrift state, the temptation of civil war, the fear of globalization). Alas! The European Union is now extremely weakened, not only economically, which I will not go back on, but also politically, with the rise within it of sovereignist, nationalist, and illiberal forces, which are often those of the far right.
This Union, which has taken us decades to build and should be further strengthened to become a truly federal Europe, may disappear or lose its substance in a few years: all it would take is for France and Germany, after Italy, to give power to the far right, a prospect that is not excluded in any of these two countries and could become very close in the near future. An economically lagging and politically weakening Europe in an increasingly brutal and uncertain world, on a planet whose climate is deteriorating: this is, in summary, the current situation.
Innovation and productivity: why France risks falling behind for good, even compared to its neighbors
This is not a reason to give up, quite the contrary. In terms of the economy and ecology, more competent individuals than me will say what needs to be done. But nothing will be possible without a kind of resurgence, which requires political action. This is suggested by two recent books, one by Nicolas Baverez, “Sursaut” (L’Observatoire, 2024), and the other by Nicolas Bouzou, “L’Eternel Sursaut” (XO Editions, 2026). These two authors, drawing on history, give reasons for hope, or even better, reasons to have confidence.
Our country is not lacking in assets. However, it is essential that the upcoming presidential election prevents the worst-case scenario for France and Europe (a second round with candidates Melenchon and Bardella), so that we can avoid disaster. This is the current battle, which in a few days, will involve the municipal elections.
