As the US legislative elections in November approach, Democrats are increasingly optimistic, encouraged by a series of victories that suggest the rejection of President Donald Trump is spreading even to the traditional Republican strongholds.
“It appears that a ‘blue wave’ (the color of the Democratic Party, Ed.) is not only possible but likely. Democrats continue to exceed expectations and increase their leads,” says Andrew Koneschusky, a political analyst who has worked for Democrats in the Senate.
If this trend continues, Democrats could hope to tip 40 or more Republican seats out of the 435 available in the House of Representatives, he adds.
Democratic progress has been evident this week, particularly in Georgia (south).
In the election to fill the seat of former Trump-endorsed Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Democratic candidate lost but reduced the gap in this very conservative district by nearly 17 points compared to 2024.
And in Wisconsin, a Democrat won the municipality of Waukesha, a Republican stronghold.
These special elections, outside major electoral periods, are not reliable indicators, warn analysts. But the magnitude and regularity of these poor results are worrying Republicans.
Among the arguments put forth by Democrats: Donald Trump has initiated a very unpopular conflict in the Middle East, which exposes Republicans to popular discontent. Particularly with the rise in gas prices.
An anti-war effect that had previously led Americans to vote heavily for the opposition in 2006, after the Republican George W. Bush started the Iraq war.
This time, the magnitude of the Democratic victory may be more measured.
“There will be a blue wave, but it won’t be strong enough to ride on,” says political analyst Donald Nieman, who predicts a Democratic majority in the House by 10 seats after November.
“American politics remain polarized, with most voters having already chosen their side,” he explains.
He also estimates that only about 60 seats truly have uncertain outcomes.
In the Senate, overturning the Republican majority may be more complicated due to the seat composition, but such a performance seems within reach on the left.
For Donald Trump, losing the majority in Congress could complicate the end of his second term.
Democrats could then curb a large part of his program at the national and international levels, particularly by limiting his powers regarding foreign military intervention.
They could also pave the way for parliamentary investigations into the Trump administration.
But for experts, an anti-Trump sentiment does not necessarily equate to broad support for Democratic candidates. For example, the Republican Party continues to receive significant donations during fundraising events.
For consultant Caroline Welles, who works for Democratic candidates, these recent good scores are a “reason to be optimistic.”
“However, it should be noted that the midterm elections are more than six months away,” she adds, “and the political landscape could have completely changed by then.”
Aaron Cutler, who worked for the Republicans in the House of Representatives and is now a lobbyist, has even suggested that the right could still win the midterm elections.
According to him, there is currently a lack of unified message among Democrats, apart from the rejection of Republicans, and the opposition should instead try to present “a vision to Americans.”
Published on April 12 at 09:53, by AFP
