Important:
- On April 12th, the United States announced the failure of negotiations with Iran that started 21 hours earlier.
- Meanwhile, Pakistan, host of the talks between the warring parties, urges them to abide by the ceasefire.
- Middle East specialist Michel Derczansky provides analysis on LCI.
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is set to run until April 22. With the announcement on April 12 of the failed negotiations between the two adversaries that began in Pakistan the day before, concerns about a resumption of hostilities are rising. The host country of these discussions urges both Tehran and Washington to respect the ceasefire to the end.
Before returning to the United States, Vice President JD Vance, leading the American delegation, specified that a “final offer” had been made to the Iranians. Middle East specialist Michel Derczansky believes that the observance of the ceasefire is crucial. He questions, “The issue is when will Iran say no to the United States on this final proposal. Will they say it officially or unofficially and will it deteriorate over time?” he pondered on LCI, a sequence to be found in the video at the top of this article.
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“It is clear that the Iranians have two leverage points. One on which they will not bend, the 440 kilograms of enriched uranium, and then the question of the Strait of Hormuz,” continued the teacher at ESJ Lille. “The Strait of Hormuz is a means for them to be able to make infl ections, close, open at will and play on this point.”
Facing the possibility of an American blockade advanced by Donald Trump, Iran would not be the only country affected. China and India would also be impacted. “It would be strategically positive for the United States since vis-a-vis China, they would influence imports to China and affect its economy, which aims to become the world’s leading power by 2049,” concluded Michel Derczansky.
