Inflation surged last month in the United States to 3.3% year-on-year, reflecting a sharp rise in prices at the pump due to the Middle East war, according to official data released on Friday.
By comparison, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-on-year in February.
Between February and March, pump prices soared by 21.2%. Such a monthly percentage increase had not been seen since the creation of a gasoline index in 1967, as highlighted by the American statistical service BLS.
Nevertheless, even excluding volatile prices of energy and food, inflation increased (+2.6% compared to +2.5% the previous month).
Markets were expecting to see such figures, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch.
The Middle East war was triggered on February 28 by Israeli-American airstrikes on Iran. Tehran retaliated by blocking maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas usually pass.
Despite being the world’s largest oil producer, the United States could not shield itself from the surge in prices.
Gas prices quickly rose. A gallon (3.78 liters) of regular gasoline now costs an average of $4.15 in the United States, up from about $3 just before the war.
The American administration, elected partly on the promise to improve purchasing power, assures that the economic disruptions domestically will be temporary.
“Just the beginning”
“The war in Iran has clear economic repercussions that weigh heavily on middle and low-income households,” commented economist Heather Long of the Navy Federal Credit Union on Friday.
“The increase in gas prices, diesel, and airline tickets is already being felt and is putting American households to the test,” she added.
“And this is just the beginning,” predicts Ms. Long, who expects food and transportation costs to rise in April.
When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, inflation was continuing the decline that began under Joe Biden, compared to the peak reached in spring 2022 (the war in Ukraine, which started a few months earlier, had driven gas prices even higher than today).
The CPI index was only increasing by 2.3% year-on-year in April 2025, around the time when the US president announced a significant increase in tariffs on imported goods.
Inflation then started trending in the wrong direction, with Washington refusing to see it as a consequence of these tariffs.
Price hikes had slowed down again at the end of last year, largely due to soft gas prices.
During the latest Federal Reserve meeting in mid-March, Fed chair Jerome Powell explained that the war could delay the timing at which inflation would be contained in the United States.
The US central bank aims for a limited price increase of 2%, a target it has not met in five years due to a series of shocks (Covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, tariffs).
