Despite the cease-fire between Washington and Tehran, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was still over 90% below normal levels in recent days and was almost entirely driven by Iranian trade.
Hundreds of cargo ships remain stuck in the Gulf, and passages through the Strait of Hormuz have been rare since the fragile two-week cease-fire between the United States and Iran came into effect.
Since the truce was announced on Tuesday night to Wednesday, four tankers and six bulk carriers have crossed this crucial waterway for international maritime trade, which has been virtually closed by Iran since the beginning of the war, and whose reopening was a condition of the temporary cessation of fire. Here is the current situation.
No acceleration of traffic
Of the four tankers that have passed through the strait since the start of the cease-fire, only one, the “MSG,” does not appear to be linked to Iran. This Gabon-flagged vessel passed through this passage on Thursday, carrying nearly 7,000 tons of fuel (44,000 barrels) loaded in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates, bound for the port of Pipavav in India, according to maritime data provider Kpler.
About ten other vessels seemed on Thursday evening to be on the verge of crossing the strait, a number stable compared to the daily traffic before the cease-fire. All ships en route to embark on this route were either from Iran or heading there, or had ties with non-hostile countries to the Islamic Republic.
“The strait remains as open or closed as it was before the emergence of a ten or fifteen-point plan,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of the maritime magazine Lloyd’s List, referring to the plan that served as the basis for the truce between Iran and the United States.
Passage through this route in recent days was “still more than 90% below normal levels and was almost entirely driven by Iranian trade,” emphasized Bridget Diakun, analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Crossings should “remain at a maximum of 10 to 15 passages per day if the cease-fire holds,” estimated Ana Subasic, an analyst at Kpler.
Out of the 315 passages made by ships carrying raw materials between March 1 and April 8, 202 involved tankers or gas carriers, most heading east toward the Gulf of Oman, according to Kpler data. Six out of ten transits involved vessels coming from or heading to Iran.
Approved route by Iran
Iran on Thursday imposed alternative itineraries for ships passing through the strait, citing the risk of marine mines on the usual route further off its coast. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards broadcast a map with instructions concerning entry and exit routes, passing on either side of the Iranian island of Larak.
The ideological army of the Islamic Republic further specified that ships wishing to cross the strait had to do so in coordination with Iranian naval forces, according to the intelligence firm Vanguard Tech.
Except for three Omani tankers that crossed this waterway last week near the coast of Oman, all recently passed ships seem to have taken the route approved by Iran, with some reportedly paying fees to do so. Many uncertainties remain about the possible passage modalities.
The Financial Times wrote on Wednesday that Tehran would demand one dollar per barrel of oil passing through the strait, to be paid in cryptocurrencies. Maritime industry players also told AFP that other rumors were circulating, including a requirement for ships to be on a list to be allowed to pass or a ranking of countries on five levels, with ships linked to friendly states to Iran enjoying more favorable conditions.
800 blocked ships
Many shipowners and associations in this sector have expressed doubts that the cease-fire allows vessels to pass through the strait safely. Leaving the Gulf now “would not be advisable” without coordination with the United States and Iran, said Jakob Larsen, head of security for the professional association Bimco, on Wednesday.
German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd announced on Wednesday that its vessels would not resume transits via the strait for the time being. Approximately 800 ships have been blocked in the Gulf since late February, according to Lloyd’s List.
Altogether, 172 million barrels of crude and refined products, distributed aboard some 187 tankers, were at sea in the Gulf on April 7, according to Kpler. The conflict in the Middle East has caused the most serious disruption to the global tanker market supply in history, according to the International Energy Agency.
Thirty targeted ships
No new attacks on ships have been recorded since the cease-fire was announced. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for three attacks on ships between Saturday and Tuesday, one of which was confirmed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
In total, 30 merchant ships, including 13 tankers, have been attacked or reported incidents since March 1 in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman, according to the IMO, UKMTO, and Vanguard Tech.
