Global Energy Crisis: Morocco Ranks Fourth among Countries Most Exposed

On the night of March 16, diesel prices rose by 2 dirhams at the pump in Morocco. Gasoline followed with an increase of 1.44 dirham. Three weeks after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the impact of the Iranian-American conflict directly hit the gas stations of a country that produces almost none of what it burns.

This comes as no surprise, but rather a confirmation. In March, a study by the specialized magazine “Energy World” analyzed 75 global economies based on their exposure to an energy crisis. Morocco scored 74.6 out of 100, ranking fourth globally behind Singapore, Turkmenistan, and Hong Kong. 90.1% of its energy mix relies on fossil fuels, with domestic production covering only 6% of the demand. The remaining 94% comes from abroad, with 95% of natural gas imports passing through routes that were affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz starting from February 28.

“The annual energy bill for Morocco ranges between 12 and 15 billion dollars,” said Mostapha Labrak, a specialist in hydrocarbons. This amount has been increasing mechanically since the price of Brent crude surpassed $116 per barrel, which is 20% higher than at the end of February.

The Moroccan position is further aggravated by the fact that the crisis doesn’t just impact fuel prices. As the world’s leading producer of phosphates through the OCP group, the Kingdom depends on sulfur to produce phosphoric acid, a crucial step in the transformation of raw phosphate into marketable fertilizers. 44% of global sulfur exports go through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy and agriculture: the Maghreb’s double vulnerability to the Hormuz crisis is particularly acute in Morocco.

The country currently has reserves of diesel for 51 days, gasoline for 55 days, and secured supplies of coal and gas until the end of June. However, experts like Khalid Achiban warn that these stocks can only absorb short-term shocks and do not provide a safety net against long-term disruptions. The challenge lies not only in the source of imports but also in the rising costs of transportation, insurance, and delivery times, as the global market reassesses geopolitical risks.

According to Abdelrahmi Bessaha, a former IMF consultant, “the mere perception of a disruption risk in one of these corridors can immediately drive up energy prices and reassess risks in financial markets.” Morocco is no longer just dealing with perceptions.

On the markets, OPEC+ has announced a new increase of 206,000 barrels per day for May, repeating the gesture made in March, which was widely interpreted as a political signal. Alternative routes to bypass Hormuz remain congested, covering only a third of the usual flows. Meanwhile, Moroccan stocks continue to deplete.