In the United States, a discreet yet important turning point is taking place. By 2025, the fertility rate in Uncle Sam’s country has reached a historically low level. The number of births remains steady, around 3.6 million, but hides a deeper reality: American women are having children later and later. For the first time, women in their late thirties have even more children than those in their early twenties, as reported by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, April 9. A clear sign of societal change.
This decline is part of a long-term trend. Since 2007, births have decreased almost every year.
Amidst the Atlantic, the overall fertility rate has dropped to 53.1 births per 1,000 women. A record low. Moreover, the average number of children per woman is 1.57, well below the replacement threshold of generations. Below the 2.1 indicator of fertility, the population does not “replace” itself, and the demographic balance weakens. Without immigration, this ultimately signifies a decline.
This change is largely explained by the drop in births among the youngest. For those aged 15 to 19, the decline is remarkable. Since 2007, the rate has plummeted by 72%. “We have spent decades discouraging early pregnancies,” notes researcher Karen Benjamin Guzzo. Public health campaigns and access to contraception have clearly been effective since the 1980s.
While public policies have borne fruit, they have also indirectly shifted motherhood to later ages. Many women do not give up on having children but choose to wait. Reasons vary: finances, couple stability, political uncertainties. “People wait to be ready in their lives before becoming parents,” explains demographer Wendy Manning at Bowling Green State University.
In the longer term, the consequences could be significant. Births still surpass deaths, but the gap is narrowing. Over the span of a decade, this dynamic could reverse. In that case, the growth of the American population would almost entirely rely on immigration. “There is a lot of uncertainty and that is not necessarily good for society,” warns Wendy Manning again. A central challenge for the years to come.
