At 11:00 GMT (13:00 Paris time), the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent oil for delivery in June rose by 3.85% to $98.40. Its American equivalent, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel for delivery in May, gained 5.05% to $99.18.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon on Wednesday, which killed 182 people and injured 890 according to Lebanese authorities, pose a “serious risk to the ceasefire and efforts for a lasting peace in the region,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a statement from his spokesperson.
The initial optimism surrounding the ceasefire had caused a drop in oil prices on Wednesday, but “the market quickly refocused on the underlying reality: the Strait of Hormuz remains subject to restrictions, and the global oil system is far from functioning normally,” noted Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.
On Wednesday, “the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was completely interrupted” after the Israeli attack on Lebanon, which Iran considers to be a “violation of the ceasefire,” reported the Iranian news agency Fars.
The United States, which believes that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement, warned that it would be “unacceptable” for Iran to block the strait again.
“There already seems to be a disagreement on the 10-point plan that is currently in effect,” suggesting that “the ceasefire is poorly conceived and poorly implemented,” observed Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, an analyst at Global Risk Management.
Concerns for maritime transit also arise from the announcement on Thursday by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard navy that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must take two alternative routes closer to the Iranian coast, citing the possibility of “mines” on the usual route further offshore.
Traffic remains significantly reduced in the area, with Lloyd’s List Intelligence reporting a 90% decrease in passages through the Strait of Hormuz compared to normal over the past week, most of which are now linked to Iran. As long as this situation persists, the export capacity of oil-producing countries in the Gulf remains particularly limited, which is a factor driving prices up.
