The ceasefire in the Iran war was teetering on Thursday due to disagreements between the various countries involved on critical issues.
The truce is undermined by intensive Israeli bombings on Beirut, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran, and uncertainty about the negotiators’ ability to find common ground.
Hours after the ceasefire announcement, Israel bombarded Beirut with airstrikes, causing the deadliest day in Lebanon since the start of the war on February 28.
Meanwhile, Iran and the United States seemed to be trying to pressure each other.
Semi-official press agencies in Iran hinted at forces mining the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump warned that American troops would strike Iran even harder if it did not respect the agreement.
The nature of this agreement remains highly controversial. Apart from whether Lebanon is part of it, questions arise about the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stocks.
The manner and timing of the resumption of normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz are closely monitored, as well as Iran’s ability to launch missile attacks in the future.
- Israeli Strikes in Lebanon
At least 182 people were killed in Lebanon on Wednesday when Israel intensified its attacks on the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah, who joined the war to support Tehran.
Israel announced on Thursday that they had killed Ali Yusuf Harshi, a close associate of Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem. Hezbollah did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted that ending the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump stated otherwise.
According to a think tank based in New York, the ceasefire is “on the brink of collapse.”
“Even if Lebanon is officially excluded from the agreement, the scale of Israeli airstrikes may still be perceived as an escalation,” wrote the Soufan Center in an analysis.
- Oil Prices Remain High
Semi-official press agencies in Iran published a graph on Thursday suggesting that the Revolutionary Guards, a paramilitary force in the country, had laid sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz during the war.
The graph showed a large circle labeled “danger zone” in Farsi on the route ships take through the strait.
Only a trickle of ships has passed through the strait since the start of the war, after a few were attacked, and Iran threatened to strike any ship it deemed linked to the United States or Israel.
Ships seemed to continue avoiding the strait on Wednesday despite the ceasefire, with data from Kpler showing only four tracer-equipped ships traversing it.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told the BBC on Thursday that his country would allow ships to pass through the strait in accordance with “international law” once the United States ended its “aggression” in the Middle East and Israel stopped attacking Lebanon.
The de facto closure of the strait has caused a surge in oil prices. The spot price of Brent, the international benchmark, settled around $98 US on Thursday, an increase of about 35% since the start of the war.
Mr. Trump warned that warships and American troops would remain near Iran “until the REAL DEAL reached” is fully respected.
- Peace Talks
The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance would lead the American delegation for talks to end the war, set to begin on Saturday in Islamabad.
There seem to be many points of disagreement to resolve, including whether Iran will be allowed to formalize the toll system they established for the use of the Strait of Hormuz.
The fate of Iran’s missile and nuclear programs – a key objective for the United States and Israel in entering the war – also remains uncertain.
The United States insists that Iran should never be able to manufacture nuclear weapons and wants to eliminate Tehran’s highly enriched uranium stocks. Iran claims its program is peaceful.
Mr. Trump declared on Wednesday that the United States would cooperate with Iran to remove buried uranium, although Iran did not confirm this. One version of the agreement published by Iran indicates that the country would be allowed to continue its enrichment activities.
