According to the eighth edition of the regional survey conducted by the Singaporean Institute ISEAS-Yusof Ishak and published on Tuesday, April 7, the first year of Donald Trump’s second term has led to growing distrust of the United States in ASEAN countries. While in 2019, a minority (47.7%) of Southeast Asians preferred Beijing over Washington if forced to choose a side, this year, the trend has reversed.
More than half of ASEAN residents (52%) now prefer to align with China, compared to 48% for the United States.
– Nearly one-third of respondents (29.5%) expect their country’s relations with the United States to deteriorate this year, double the percentage from the previous year (14.2%). – On the contrary, the majority of respondents (56%) believe their country’s relations with China will improve over the next three years, compared to 33% for the United States. – The tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration, particularly impacting Southeast Asian countries where the textile industry and exports of finished products play a key role in the economy, rank highest among actions that could further tarnish the image of the United States in the region. – While Washington is still perceived as the best country to ensure respect for international law, the gap with the European Union has significantly narrowed this year. – Ranked second ahead of China, the EU could soon become the most trusted actor in upholding the international order based on rules for ASEAN countries. – China maintained its third position this year with a slight increase in points.
The administration’s Trump policy is seen as the main concern for ASEAN countries (51.9%), followed by global fraudulent operations (51.4%) and Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea (48.2%).
In addition to the impact of tariffs, the war launched on February 28 by the U.S. and Israel against Iran is mostly affecting Asia, with various measures taken by countries like Cambodia, Indonesia, and the Philippines to address energy consumption concerns.
Similar to Europe, where our January Eurobazooka survey showed that Trump’s presidency was pushing the EU closer to China, a similar trend is observed in Southeast Asia. The aggressive behaviors of the Chinese navy in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are somewhat sidelined.
