Fuel: despite the ceasefire in Iran, it is not certain that we will find pre

US and Iran agree on ceasefire in the Middle East

• After this announcement, oil prices dropped sharply.
• What will be the effects on fuel prices in France? Analysis with energy expert Thierry Bros.

Will gas pump prices finally decrease? For over a month, fuel prices have soared in France, impacting the purchasing power of many motorists. The conflict in the Middle East initiated by the US and Israel on February 28 against Iran has continued for five weeks until the ceasefire announcement on the night of Tuesday, April 7 to Wednesday, April 8. One condition set by Donald Trump to finalize this truce was the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for about 20% of the world’s oil, blocked by the Islamic Republic for over a month.

“5 to 10 cents reductions” expected by the oil industry

During the conflict, oil prices spiked to historical highs. The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surpassed $100 several times, even reaching close to $120 at the beginning of March. This context led to repercussions for motorists, including in France. According to AFP calculations, the price of diesel in France averaged €2.375 per liter on Wednesday, April 8, up from €1.725 in February.

With the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and calm in the Middle East, markets responded with relief, leading to significant drops in oil prices. The price of Brent crude fell back below $100 on Wednesday. Will this bring relief when refueling at gas stations?

…

The pivotal position of Iran

In the coming weeks, Iran’s stance will be crucial in the evolution of oil prices and its impact on fuel prices in France. By controlling this strategic route for international oil trade, Iran now holds a significant card to influence the price of oil, aiming for higher prices than pre-war levels.

Given this geopolitical upheaval, it is uncertain if fuel prices will return to levels before the start of the Israeli-American military operation in Iran. Especially for diesel, a fuel on which France depends for imports.