The truce between Iran and the United States appears to be hanging by a thread on Wednesday night, with Tehran threatening to resume hostilities following Israel’s deadly strikes in Lebanon.
Vice President JD Vance, who is set to lead the American delegation in talks with Iran in Pakistan on Saturday, suggested that it was up to Iranian leaders to decide if the truce failed due to the situation in Lebanon.
“If Iran wants these negotiations to fail because of a conflict in which they are being pummeled in Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them, and the US has never said it was part of the ceasefire, that’s their choice,” he said on Wednesday before leaving Budapest.
Simultaneous Israeli strikes in Lebanon, particularly in residential areas of Beirut, resulted in 182 deaths and 890 injuries on Wednesday, according to the latest report from the Ministry of Health.
The Israeli army claimed to have carried out its “largest coordinated strike” against Hezbollah since the outbreak of the war on February 28, stating that they targeted “hundreds” of members of the pro-Iranian movement, including a commander.
A series of strikes hit several neighborhoods in the heart of the capital, causing scenes of panic.
“I saw the plane strike, people starting to run in all directions, and the smoke rising,” said Ali Younes, who was waiting for his wife near the Mazraa corniche, one of the targeted areas.
Meanwhile, a ceasefire in Lebanon is one of the “essential conditions” outlined in Iran’s ten-point plan, the basis of the truce with the United States, emphasized Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday evening, according to the Isna agency.
On the other hand, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, deemed the ceasefire and negotiations with the United States “unreasonable.”
Despite the cessation of Israeli-American bombings in Iran after a 39-day conflict that claimed thousands of lives, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, calm is far from being restored in the region, and ambiguity lingers over the terms of the agreement.
Pakistan, the mediator of the ceasefire, has urged parties to exercise “restraint.”
Representatives from both sides are scheduled to meet in Islamabad on Saturday to negotiate a settlement to the war, beyond the two-week truce agreed upon Tuesday night, just before Donald Trump’s ultimatum expired.
“Horrific”
“I saw a strike, it was very strong, children were killed, others had their arms severed,” Yasser Abdallah recounted, who works in an electronics store near one of the bombarded areas in the Lebanese capital.
These attacks have drawn numerous condemnations from the UN to Iraq to Jordan.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turck, described the scale of the killings as “horrific” and urged the international community to help put an end to the “nightmare.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declared a national day of mourning on Thursday.
However, Hezbollah claimed the right to retaliate. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards also threatened to respond to the “brutal massacre” in Beirut.
While Pakistan’s Prime Minister initially stated that the ceasefire applied “everywhere,” including Lebanon, Washington later denied this.
Moreover, adding to the fragility of the ceasefire, a senior White House official stated that a publicly released ten-point plan by Iran was not the document used as the basis for negotiations with the United States.
The list presented by the Islamic Republic includes aspects such as “maintaining Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, accepting uranium enrichment, and lifting all primary and secondary sanctions.”
Donald Trump expressed willingness to “discuss” “lifting (…) sanctions” choking Iran’s economy but insisted there would be “no uranium enrichment.”
The martial tone remained on the side of his Israeli ally: the ceasefire “is not the end of the campaign” against Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, adding that Israel was “ready to resume the fight at any time.”
Nevertheless, the Israeli police announced that the holy sites of the three monotheistic religions in Jerusalem would reopen on Thursday.
Market Relief
Following a Tuesday marked by strikes and threats of annihilation against the “Iranian civilization” by Donald Trump, news of a ceasefire came in the middle of the night in Iran.
“I still have pain because of fear,” explained 48-year-old English teacher Simin to AFP. “The shock and psychological pressure were so intense that even now, we don’t know whether we should feel relieved by the ceasefire or not.”
Caution prevails in the Gulf as Iran continued its retaliatory attacks on Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, with the latter intending to demand Iran to pay for “damages and reparations.” Tehran retaliated with airstrikes against its own oil facilities after the truce.
According to the Financial Times, a drone attack targeted a significant oil facility in Saudi Arabia.
Despite these incidents, the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage through which normally 20% of the world’s oil consumption transits, caused a wave of relief in global markets, resulting in a drop in oil prices and a rebound in stock exchanges.
Two vessels, one Greek and the other flying the Liberian flag, managed to pass through the strait on Wednesday, but some maritime transport operators decided not to venture yet, as over 800 vessels remain immobilized in the Gulf.
