THOMAS SAMSON / AFP
By refusing the primary, these potential candidates in 2027 are banking everything on polls
How many will make it to the finish line? A year before the presidential election, ambitions are multiplying on the left, right, and center. Behind the officially declared candidates like Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, or Marine Tondelier, many contenders are preparing to enter the race.
Their common goal? All of them, without exception, show a fierce desire to gather a broad coalition beyond their party, in order to avoid deadly divisions and to secure a place in the second round against the National Rally. The issue: there are two camps divided on the best method to achieve unity.
On one side, there are advocates for the famous primary. Laurent Wauquiez, David Lisnard, or Gérald Darmanin on the right, as well as Marine Tondelier or Olivier Faure on the left, argue for an internal competition (more or less broad), with a vote by party members (or sympathizers depending on the formula) to select the best candidate. “Voters have never been the problem; they are a compass,” argued the ecologists’ leader in an interview published in The Times on Tuesday, April 7th. Without convincing.
Wild primary
On the other hand, the candidates in a stronger position (according to current polls) are much more reluctant about this type of internal voting system. For these candidates, primaries may have worked in the past, like with François Hollande in 2012 or François Fillon in 2017. But they are not suitable for the current period, as they would exacerbate tensions and force some compromises they are not willing to make.
“I do not believe in the primary,” explained Édouard Philippe at the end of March on France 2, while also stating that he was “listening” and “carefully considering” those discussing it. A polite way to close the door to those demanding this preliminary round on the right and center.
Therefore, a question arises: how do these different candidates imagine uniting others in a broad coalition, as they wish, without adhering to the rules of internal voting sharing? “I will never play with the future of my country. Do not count on me to enter into a logic that would put it in the terrifying situation of having to choose between LFI and RN,” said Édouard Philippe in the same post-municipal election interview. Hence, the hypothesis of a wild primary.
Polls as the deciding factor
In summary: “assuming” the presence of “different candidates, different political parties presenting projects” before a “unification” at the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027, as unveiled by Gabriel Attal this spring. Like the leader of Renaissance, François Bayrou, whose candidacy is no longer a secret, pushes the same logic. “Let everyone present themselves, state their ideas. And at the end of February, late January-February (…) let everyone be ready to withdraw for the one who will be considered the best placed,” he recently explained on LCI.
In this scenario, the deciding factor on the right is likely to be polls. It is indeed difficult to imagine another arbiter to determine, so late and without any preparation, the best possible candidate to embody a trend. But is it really that simple?
The method has already succeeded, and François Bayrou can attest to that. The president of the MoDem party had indeed rallied behind Emmanuel Macron (based on voting intentions and his momentum) in January 2017, helping his rise and ultimate victory a few months later. That is for the optimists. The more pessimistic ones, however, will remind us that nothing is automatic. Without a primary or clear selection among voters, candidates poorly ranked in opinion polls will have to acknowledge their reliability and legitimacy before stepping aside without discussion. Not so simple.
On the left, the situation is similar, but not entirely identical. The leading candidates in the polls, Raphaël Glucksmann and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, also rule out any idea of a primary, opting instead to rely on polls to build an irresistible “momentum.” Whether through alliances or not, both rely on these opinion polls (despite being frowned upon by LFI) to embody the strategic vote and attract voters from the opposing side, following a well-known logic: disciplined, left-leaning voters often vote for the best-placed candidate. A way to clarify the finish line as well.
