Withdrawal of the United States from NATO: Real threat or political leverage?

For several weeks, Donald Trump has been making ambiguous statements about NATO, causing concern among European allies, especially France.

Donald Trump recently mentioned the possibility of withdrawing his country from NATO. By suggesting a potential disengagement of the United States, the former president revives a sensitive debate about the strength of the transatlantic alliance.

He notably criticizes certain member states for their lack of military involvement, especially in managing strategic crises such as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the refusal to send ships to secure this critical area of global trade highlights an imbalance in responsibilities within the alliance.

But is such a decision actually within the reach of an American president? On paper, the answer seems to be yes. Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty provides that a member state can withdraw from the organization one year after officially notifying its decision. This mechanism suggests that a withdrawal could be relatively straightforward to initiate.

However, the American legal reality is much more complex. In 2023, the United States Congress passed a law limiting this presidential power. Now, any NATO withdrawal must be approved by a two-thirds majority of the United States Senate. This measure aims to ensure that any decision of this magnitude is based on broad political consensus, rather than individual initiative.

In practice, this means that Donald Trump, or any other president, can use the threat of withdrawal as a tool of diplomatic pressure. Nevertheless, he does not have the sole power to actualize such a decision.

Thus, behind the dramatic declarations lies a strong institutional reality: the future of the United States within NATO primarily depends on Congress, especially the Senate.