The military feat that represented the rescue of a crew member of an American plane shot down over Iran has restored confidence in Washington. Donald Trump gathered the press today to glorify this Hollywood-worthy exploit. But this success cannot hide the setback of the Trump administration in the face of the Iranian regime’s ability after 39 days and thousands of bombings to operate, inflict losses on the American aviation, strike targets in the Gulf countries and in Israel, and above all to hold the global economy hostage in the Strait of Hormuz. This surprise should not be unexpected. The analysis of the doctrinal differences between Iran on one side, the United States and Israel on the other, helps to understand the miscalculation made. It explains why the world’s first and most powerful army in the region fails to defeat a regime under sanctions, rejected by a large part of its population, and being destroyed by bombs.
The Iranian military doctrine is called mosaicism, like works of art made of thousands of small stone cubes. It was designed in the 1980s, when the young Islamic Republic founded by Khomeini was attacked by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and almost perished. Since then, Iran has been preparing for a war with the Great American Satan, which it has always considered inevitable. The principle of mosaicism is the decentralization of responsibility, which explains why decapitating the regime did not lead to its collapse and did not prevent the command chains from functioning. Experts were surprised by the coordinated response capacity of Iranians when the Israelis bombed the Natanz nuclear center. A few hours later, Iran bombed Dimona in southern Israel, where a nuclear research center is located. This means that military communications are still functioning despite the bombs. Iranian leaders boast of having distinguished American failures in their Iraqi neighbors to refine their own strategy.
In contrast, Americans rely on their technological superiority and unmatched means. Before the war was triggered, there were two aircraft carriers and considerable forces in the region, but this undeniable superiority did not prevent entrenchment and failure in Afghanistan and Iraq yesterday. They do not know how to manage the asymmetry practiced by Iran. As for Israel, we have seen since October 7 the doctrine of disproportion. This is contrary to international law, but it is ignored by all belligerents. Israel believes that by striking ten times harder than the blows it receives, it will deter its opponent from retaliating. One could argue that it allows time to be gained, not to change the situation.
Israel and the United States can still hope that their striking force will eventually overcome the resilience of the Iranian regime, which seeks first to survive. It is clear that they have been wrong so far, underestimating an adversary who does not follow the same war manual as them.
