Published
Updated
Reading time: 4min – video: 23min
Dominique Moïsi, geopolitical analyst and author of “The Geopolitics of Emotion: How Cultures of Fear, Humiliation, and Hope are Reshaping the World”, published by Knopf, was the political guest on France Info on Saturday, April 4th.
This text corresponds to a portion of the interview transcription above. Click on the video to watch it in full.
France Télévisions: You are a geopolitician, founding member of IFRI (French Institute for International Relations), you teach international relations at the most prestigious universities. You have taught at Harvard, King’s College in London, ENA, and Sciences Po in Paris, and you have published “The Geopolitics of Emotion” with Knopf, “How Cultures of Fear, Humiliation, and Hope are Reshaping the World.” The big question of the book is: are we experiencing a nightmarish interlude with Russia’s entry into war in Ukraine on October 7th, the election of Donald Trump, or is it worse than that, is it durabl… and we are in a new world? First, the latest news from the war: it is this pilot who is being sought after this fighter plane shot down by the Iranians. Can this kind of incident shift the war in your opinion?
Dominique Moïsi, geopolitical analyst: It is very emotional. There is really a race. There is the positive scenario for Donald Trump: he succeeds in recovering this pilot. There is the negative scenario. And here, there is the spotlight on America, there is the staging.
And this could be a turning point?
It could be a turning point. It will reinforce the hostility of a majority of Americans who are against this war. What will he do in this mess? It will also reinforce more rational criticisms. “But you have been promising us for days on end that you have won the war, that there is no more Iranian defense. Look at what happened.”
Donald Trump does not talk about the plane at all. He is briefed. He says nothing about the pilot. It’s an unusual silence from Donald Trump. However, he broke his silence on his social network to say: “I remind you that you only have 48 hours left. If the Mullahs regime does not unblock the Strait of Hormuz, I promise you hell.” So his ultimatum still stands, Monday, April 6, 8 p.m., Washington time. How do you understand this statement?
We must understand the silence. There was this hero of the United States who had been a presidential candidate, John McCain, and he had been taken prisoner.
During the Vietnam War.
Instead of treating him as a hero, Trump had made disparaging remarks. Here, it’s silence, it’s normal, it reflects his deep personality. His statement on the ultimatum, he wants his word to be taken seriously again. The problem is that from ultimatum to ultimatum, he is starting to lose all credibility.
At this stage of the conflict, who has the advantage militarily, economically, politically?
Militarily, it is undeniable that the Americans and Israelis have scored points, have demonstrated their superiority. But the Iranian regime survives. And surviving against these two armies is a victory. I would say we can make a comparison with the war in Ukraine: not losing for the Ukrainians was winning. Not toppling the regime for the Israelis and Americans is almost losing.
What strikes you the most in this conflict? Is it the immediate blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? Is it this regime that goes all the way, even if it is largely decimated? Is it a form of improvisation by Donald Trump?
What strikes me the most is this war of choice that seems completely unprepared, this strategic mistake from the start regarding the organization of power in Iran. This idea that, by decapitating the head, the pyramid would collapse. And this lack of understanding of the horizontal nature of power, a regime that has been organizing itself for over 40 years for this moment, to survive.
Taking the title of your book, or more precisely the subtitle, “How Cultures of Fear, Humiliation, and Hope are Reshaping the World,” does Donald Trump understand the chaos that is coming?
I’m not sure he understands it, he contributes to it very largely. America has become a principle of disorder, whereas over the past 80 years, it was generally, with obvious failures of course, a principle of order.
Click on the video to watch the interview in full.
