A tone that is both offensive, victorious and reassuring. American President Donald Trump addressed his fellow citizens on Wednesday, April 1, a little over a month after the start of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. “In the past four weeks, our armed forces have achieved rapid, decisive and overwhelming victories on the battlefield – victories like few have ever seen before,” praised the populist leader.
Known for contradictions, Donald Trump promised to “strike” Iran even “extremely hard” in the next two to three weeks, while “discussions continue” with Tehran. The announcement of an ongoing war, even if “fundamental strategic objectives are close to being achieved.”
More than 12,300 targets have been hit in Iran since February 28, according to the American military command for the Middle East (Centcom). Have Washington’s ambitions, which have been vague and sometimes changing since the conflict began, really been achieved? Elements of response.
About a third of Iranian missiles destroyed
The missiles of the Iranian regime are at the heart of Israeli-American operations against Tehran. In a video announcing the start of the offensive, Donald Trump promised to “destroy their missiles and raze their ballistic industry,” according to PBS. A month later, Admiral Brad Cooper, at the head of Centcom, stated that “more than two-thirds of the drone and missile production facilities” in Iran are “damaged or destroyed.”
“The United States and Israel have targeted Iranian missile capabilities quite intensively, especially in the west and south of the country,” notes Nicole Grajewski, a researcher at the Center for International Research at Sciences Po, on franceinfo. “A significant part of the missile development cycle has been destroyed, but that does not mean Iran is incapable of rebuilding it.”
As for existing stocks, the researcher estimates that there are “at least 30 to 40%” of their launchers in Tehran. And only a third of the missile arsenal is definitely destroyed at this point, according to five US intelligence sources interviewed by Reuters. “I agree with this estimate,” adds the military strategy and nuclear weapons specialist.
“About 30% of these missiles, maybe even more, have been destroyed. We do not know yet about the remaining 70%.”
Nicole Grajewski, researcher at the Center for International Research at Sciences Poon franceinfo
According to Reuters, the same estimate applies to Iranian drones, widely used in the regime’s retaliations. These replicas, even if they lose intensity, continue in Israel and Gulf countries. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, Iran “launched five salvos of missiles” toward Israel, while targeting Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, or Qatar, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). “They are still capable of launching a considerable number of missiles, from 20 to 30 [per day],” notes Farzin Nadimi, an analyst at the Washington Institute, to The New York Times.
Considerable naval capacities diminished
“We will annihilate their navy,” Donald Trump promised on February 28. In just over a month of the “Epic Fury” operation, Centcom claims to have damaged or destroyed at least 155 Iranian vessels. On March 25, Admiral Brad Cooper announced a second figure: the destruction of “92%” of the Iranian fleet in this war. The attack on an Iranian frigate by a US submarine torpedo on March 4 off Sri Lanka was particularly striking. The bodies of 84 individuals were recovered, and 32 sailors were rescued.
In this conflict, “Iran has lost the majority of its naval capacities in less than ten days,” emphasizes the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “The bombing of these capacities and their significant erosion up to the torpedoing of a ship in the Indian Ocean has dealt a blow to Iranian morale,” observes Sylvain Gaillaud, a researcher in contemporary history at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, on franceinfo.
“Among all the [American] war objectives, this may be the one that has been achieved the best and the most quickly.”
Sylvain Gaillaud, specialist in Iran-US relationson franceinfo
However, operations around the Strait of Hormuz “show” that Iranian naval resources “may not have been completely destroyed yet,” moderates Nicole Grajewski.
Contradictions regarding the Iranian nuclear
Since the beginning of the conflict, the thorny issue of the Iranian nuclear has been the subject of contradictory statements from Donald Trump. “We will ensure that Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons,” he declared on the night of February 27 to 28, at the beginning of the “Epic Fury” operation – accusing the Iranians of trying to “rebuild their nuclear program.” “I don’t care,” however, the American president dismissed a month later, when asked about Iranian enriched uranium. “It’s so buried underground,” he judged, that Tehran would now be “incapable” of developing atomic weapons.
In mid-March, US intelligence acknowledged that Tehran had not attempted to restart nuclear enrichment capacities hit during the twelve-day war in June 2025. A clear contradiction with the Trump administration’s initial statements, at the end of February, to justify its offensive. However, Iran seems to still have about 440 kilograms of enriched uranium at 60%, according to the CSIS. These resources could potentially allow the formation of ten to twelve bombs in the future, according to The New York Times.
After strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities in June, has the current conflict changed the situation? “There hasn’t really been an evolution since February 28,” analyzes Nicole Grajewski. “The Iranian nuclear program has probably been frozen since the June attacks,” continues Sylvain Gaillaud. The researcher speaks of “uncertainties” surrounding the Iranian stockpile of enriched uranium since then. But also of “a casualness in presidential speech” concerning this. “Donald Trump seeks to legitimize the problem, to downplay it, whereas it was previously a primary objective,”
Iran’s allies still able to cause harm
With the “Epic Fury” operation – “Roaring Lion” for Israel – another objective is to break the “proxys” ecosystem, these armed allies of Iran in the Middle East. This includes Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian Lebanese group. The Shiite militia party, engaged in a new war against Israel since early March, continues to target locations in Israeli territory and Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. “It has never been as weakened as it is now, especially after the heavy losses suffered in the last months, in 2023 and 2024. Nevertheless, it shows resilience,” analyzes Didier Leroy, a researcher at the Royal Military School of Belgium and Hezbollah specialist, to franceinfo.
“Even if Hezbollah continues to lose men, resources, and equipment, it is not in the same condition as Hamas. For now, it continues to recover and adapt.”
Didier Leroy, Hezbollah specialist researcheron franceinfo
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Lebanese militia claimed to have carried out no fewer than 71 attacks in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The Houthi rebels from Yemen, other allies of Iran, are also acting against the Israeli-American coalition. On Wednesday, they launched several ballistic missiles towards Israel. In addition to these retaliations, there are the attacks by pro-Iranian Iraqi militias targeting Baghdad airport in recent days. As the conflict drags on, “there is a reactivation of the pro-Iranian ‘axis of resistance,'” adds Sylvain Gaillaud.
A “regime change” that isn’t really one
Without making it a clear and affirmed war objective, Donald Trump called on the Iranians to “take control of [their] government” once the Israeli-American operations were over. The initial strikes, on February 28 in Tehran, decapitated the Iranian political and military apparatus, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among others. “We have had a regime change, we see it already, because the first regime has been decimated, destroyed,” praised the American president on Sunday.
“We are dealing with different people than anyone has dealt with before. It’s a whole other group of people, so I would consider it a regime change.”
Donald Trumpat a press briefing
Several experts challenge this claim. Ali Khamenei has been replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, even though serious doubts remain about his health. “He is far from having an agenda, obedience, and a worldview that are more moderate than his father’s,” observes Sylvain Gaillaud.
“The regime has clearly radicalized. There is this impression of an even more theocratic, authoritarian, anti-American regime.”
Sylvain Gaillaud, specialist in Iran-US relationson franceinfo
Several new faces in the Iranian power structure are indeed perceived as more radical, reports The New York Times. “The regime is weaker, but it remains institutionalized, rooted,” says Nicole Grajewski. “Iran has a very solid regional and institutional structure, which will be difficult to dismantle from the outside.”
/2019/10/09/phpbv6z9b.jpg "To raise awareness about the proliferation of anti")
