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War in the Middle East: Global Economic Consequences

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Here is the recent global economic development as of Wednesday around 11:30 PM GMT, on the 33rd day of the Middle East conflict.

Global stock markets are betting on a quick end Global stock markets benefited from a wave of optimism on Wednesday following President Donald Trump’s comments suggesting the end of the conflict within “two to three weeks.”

European stock markets ended significantly higher, with the Paris stock exchange rising by 2.10%, Frankfurt by 2.73%, London by 1.85%, and Milan by 3.17%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones gained 0.48%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.16%, and the broader S&P 500 index increased by 0.72%.

The Brent barrel of North Sea crude, for delivery in June, lost 2.70% to $101.16, after dropping by over 5%. Its American equivalent, WTI, for delivery in May, fell by 1.24% to $100.12.

France: Mediator for Businesses’ Mission The French Companies Mediator is leading a mission on the transport sector to ensure that, amidst the war, major customers do not worsen the financial situation of small businesses out of “egocentrism.”

Fuel: French Government Prefers Energy Saving Measures The French government will be ready to implement energy-saving measures in case of fuel supply difficulties, as mentioned by its spokesperson Maud Bregeon without further details.

The SP95-E10 reached the symbolic threshold of 2 euros per liter on Wednesday, as per an AFP-calculated average with official data. About 10% of over 9,500 petrol stations in France are out of at least one of the main fuels, according to publicly analyzed data by AFP.

USA: Decline in the Strategic Oil Reserve Oil was extracted from the United States’ strategic reserve last week for the first time since the start of the war, as per figures released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, while commercial stocks continue to rise.

The strategic stocks are closely monitored due to supply disruptions related to the conflict. According to the EIA, the SPR (“Strategic Petroleum Reserve”) lost around 300,000 barrels during the seven-day period ending on March 27.

The war threatens financial stability, warns the Bank of England The economic shock triggered by the war is posing risks to the stability of the British financial system, cautioned the Bank of England (BoE).

The conflict “constitutes a negative supply shock for the global economy and increases the probability of inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, and slower growth worldwide,” noted the BoE in a document released on Wednesday.

The World Bank is concerned The World Bank’s Managing Director, Paschal Donohoe, expressed being “very concerned” about the impact on the global economy, especially as several countries were already facing difficulties due to ongoing global crises.

“We are very concerned about the consequences this will have on inflation, jobs, and food security, which is why we are preparing to provide assistance to countries that seek it,” he stated to AFP.

Germany: War Hampers Expected Economic Recovery The energy shock caused by the conflict will “slow down” the recovery of the German economy, which will depend on additional public investments, warned the main German economic institutes.

According to them, the German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.6% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027, representing a decrease of 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points compared to the autumn forecasts.

UK: International Meeting to Secure the Strait of Hormuz “The United Kingdom has now brought together 35 nations around our declaration of intent to stand united for maritime security in the Gulf,” announced British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, unveiling the upcoming meeting “this week.”

This virtual meeting on Thursday is set to gather representatives from around thirty countries ready to collaborate to restore and ensure maritime safety in the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities are over.

Published on April 2 at 01:38 AM, AFP