“IDF at risk of imploding”: such a warning from the mouth of an Israeli army chief of staff has little precedent. These remarks, made on March 25 by General Eyal Zamir during a closed-door meeting of the security council, were leaked and subsequently publicly affirmed by the spokesman of the Israeli defense forces, of which the IDF is an acronym. He claims that there is a lack of at least 15,000 soldiers, including 7,000 combatants. Despite the call-up of 150,000 reservists (a third of the total), the Israeli army is at risk of overexposure, especially for ground forces. Never in its history has the IDF faced such a long war. The conflicts in 1956, 1967, 1973, and even the one in Lebanon in its most massive phase in 1982 lasted only a few days or at most a few weeks.
This conflict, in response to the massacres committed by Hamas with 1,200 dead on Israeli soil, has been ongoing for two and a half years. “In fact, these are intertwined wars of a different nature that do not involve the army in the same way,” analyzes geopolitician Frédéric Encel. It is not a conflict of very high intensity on Israeli soil or its borders, as faced with the armies of the Arab states which threatened the very existence of the Hebrew state.
The peace agreements with Egypt or Jordan hold, as do the Abraham Accords of mutual recognition, especially with the United Arab Emirates. Syria remains sidelined. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, armed by Iran and able to block the Bab el-Mandeb strait south of the Red Sea, are not a real threat.
The challenge is nevertheless immense for an army of citizens, as the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, the most right-wing in the history of the Hebrew state, continues its forward march. Evidence of this is the adoption on March 30 of a law establishing the death penalty for murders committed with the intention of “denying the existence of the State of Israel,” which in practice only targets Palestinians. This text, condemned by European capitals and Israeli NGOs engaged in human rights defense and by the opposition which has filed a petition for its annulment by the Supreme Court.
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The support for the IDF remains strong. “While the army is not necessarily a faithful reflection of the entire population, societal support remains very strong, despite the failure of October 7. The IDF is the most popular institution in Israel, with over 80%. The existence of the country depends on the army. And then the IDF is often a brother, a father, a son, a daughter. So, everyone identifies with it,” notes Samy Cohen, professor at Sciences Po and author of “To Kill or Let Live: Israel and the morality of war” (Flammarion).
The weariness of war is certainly real, but as the saying goes, “the rear holds.” “Israeli society is divided on the Palestinian issue, the exemption of conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews, or Netanyahu’s policies and legal affairs. The consensus, however, is complete against an Islamist regime which since its inception has continuously called for the destruction of the Jewish state and has developed a military nuclear program,” recalls Frédéric Encel.
The offensive against Iran, to destroy or at least significantly weaken the regime by annihilating what remains of its nuclear program, involves aviation, missiles, cyber, and intelligence. The only risk in the long term of a prolonged war is the exhaustion of the Iron Dome missile interceptors.
On other fronts, however, more and more men are needed for ground operations. The one in South Lebanon already requires the mobilization of five divisions and 75,000 men to create a buffer zone extending to the Litani River, at the risk of getting bogged down in endless fighting against a still formidable Hezbollah.
In Gaza, Israeli soldiers continue to patrol along the “Yellow Line,” dividing the enclave between the zone still occupied by the Israeli state and a territory where Hamas, although weakened, still enforces its rule. In the West Bank, settlers are increasingly resorting to violence and establishing illegal outposts, some thirty of which have just been legalized and are then to be secured by the military. “It is unacceptable that, while waging a war on multiple fronts, the Israeli army is also forced to deal with a threatening minority within,” publicly expressed the chief of staff on March 18.
This general of the armored units, appointed a year ago to head the armed forces by Netanyahu, is a proponent of speaking the truth, even if it disturbs those in power. “Soon, the IDF will no longer be able to carry out its usual missions, as the reservists will not be able to hold out,” warned General Zamir. This increasingly sharpens the question of conscription for the Haredim, literally “God-fearers” – the ultra-religious Jews, about 15% of the population who have been exempt from military service since the creation of the State of Israel.
For a long time, the army itself had managed, considering that integration into the ultra-pious units posed as many problems – respect for holidays and the Sabbath, gender segregation in units, etc. – as it solved.
But now, in a situation of manpower shortage, they are necessary even just to relieve other soldiers of logistical tasks, as it is out of the question to require them to join combat units and carry weapons. A bill is being proposed to regulate this, albeit limited because their conscription has been abandoned, officially for budgetary reasons but in reality for political reasons as the far-right coalition of Benjamin Netanyahu relies on the parliamentary support of the ultra-religious.
The chief of staff emphasized that “the Israeli army needs a conscription law, a law to extend compulsory service, and on reservists.” In 2027, the duration of compulsory service is expected to be reduced to 30 months instead of 36, requiring the mobilization of thousands of soldiers. The reserves also show signs of fatigue.
Just after the October 7 massacres, all reservists responded to the call. But since then, fatigue has become increasingly palpable. Sometimes 30% or even 50% of the personnel are missing. The Israeli army is a people’s army, its strength but also its weakness. Constantly called to rejoin their units, the entrepreneurs of the high-tech sector, symbols of the dynamism of the Israeli economy, are often forced to close shop. This sector, with record exports in the past two years, continues to drive the Israeli economy with growth forecasts for 2026 at 4.5%, slightly revised downwards.
Despite the risk of “a security disaster” in the long run as mentioned by Yair Lapid, a leading figure in the opposition, Israeli authorities do not intend to halt operations against Iran. “We cannot miss this opportunity. We must not ease the pressure until this regime collapses. Such an opportunity will not come again,” confides a member of the general staff to the daily Yedioth Ahronoth. However, while military cooperation – particularly in the air – with the Americans is intense, with a sharing of tasks and targets, the war aims between Washington and Jerusalem remain divergent, especially regarding the duration.
Supported by his public opinion, Benjamin Netanyahu is ready to face the challenge of a prolonged war. Donald Trump, on the other hand, cannot, as this war is becoming increasingly unpopular, even among his supporters who fear inflation and see fuel prices rise at the pump. He needs to find an exit strategy that allows him to claim victory. The Hebrew state cannot continue the war alone, or at least not in this form.
