The World Factory

Intense diplomatic activity surrounding Taiwan these days. The elected officials from the island claimed by mainland China are being courted by both China and the United States.

Chinese President Xi Jinping invited, yesterday, Monday, the leader of the Taiwanese opposition to visit China in early April, which she gladly accepted. The Kuomintang leader hopes to promote peaceful development of relations across the strait and “work for peace,” according to the Taiwanese party statement, which does not specify where Cheng Li-wun will exactly visit, nor if she will personally meet Xi Jinping. A potential meeting she campaigned for. High-level relations between China and Taiwan have been severed by Beijing for ten years.

Military Spending The announcements of this invitation and its acceptance did not happen by chance. Yesterday also marked the beginning of a visit to Taipei by a bipartisan delegation of four American senators. They are on site at a time when the defense spending bill proposed by President Lai Ching-te is blocked in Parliament by the opposition, whose leader is invited to China. The president proposes $40 billion in spending while the opposition led by Ms. Cheng Li-wun would be happy with three times less, casting doubt within the Kuomintang ranks. For Republican Senator John Curtis of Utah, a member of the US delegation, it is about ensuring that as the US invests in the region, Taiwan is also investing. This visit, condemned by Beijing like previous ones of the same kind, serves as a message of support to Taiwan while applying pressure.

Evaluation of Threats Because China still claims the island. Chinese authorities never miss an opportunity to remind that they consider Taiwan an integral part of Chinese territory and insist that annexation and reunification are inevitable, refusing to rule out the use of force to achieve it. Until recently, the date of 2027 was insistently mentioned in Washington. Not anymore. According to the latest annual threat assessment report from US intelligence released a few days ago, there is no fixed timeline for an invasion. The US intelligence community, however, believes Beijing should continue to create conditions for unification.

Stakes of stabilizing Sino-American relations The island finds itself in the middle of the power play between China and the US. The two countries are seeking to stabilize their commercial and strategic relationship. This was the focus of Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing scheduled these days and ultimately postponed due to the war in the Persian Gulf from where China buys 90% of its oil. It is worth noting that a few days before the announcement of this postponement, Chinese air incursions into Taiwanese airspace, which were nearly daily, suddenly stopped for several days without explanation. Washington now announces this visit for mid-May. In a month and a half. At the current pace of international relations, this is almost an eternity, and a lot can happen in that interval.