Since this weekend, he is back in the saddle in the race to the Elysée! Post-municipal effect. The bet was risky, to be elected in Le Havre before having a national horizon… It’s done.
And in the latest Elabe poll for La Tribune Dimanche, to be taken with a grain of salt a year before the presidential election, Édouard Philippe appears to be the only one capable of beating the National Rally in the second round.
To take with a grain of salt because the statistics of the 5th Republic do not at all support such a scenario! The cemetery of presidential elections is filled with former Prime Ministers who wrongly saw themselves in the seat of their N+1!
29 Prime Ministers since 1958. Of those 29, at least 17 have tried, are trying, or have been involved in a candidacy or a project of candidacy. For how many elected officials in the end? Only 2 have succeeded! Georges Pompidou in 1969. And Jacques Chirac, two-time Prime Minister, two failures in the presidential election before success in 1995 and 2002.
Mowed down in full flight! What about the others? Mowed down in full flight. Like Jacques Chaban-Delmas in 1974: “The large number of candidates may irritate you. It has been called an electoral fair. I am going to ask you all for an effort to listen to me (…). My action, my experience, I offer them; tonight, for France!” (April 19, 1974) But the French people preferred VGE.
It’s also the tragedy of Edouard Balladur in 1995, too confident after his cohabitation with Mitterrand. “It’s Mr. Jospin and Mr. Chirac who will be present in the… (boos). I ask you to stop!” (April 23, 1995)
And everything stops for François Fillon, weighed down by the PenelopeGate in 2017. “I do not do this cheerfully, but abstention is not in my genes. There is no other choice but to vote against the far right. I will therefore vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron.” (April 23, 2017)
For Raymond Barre and Lionel Jospin, it also doesn’t work in the 1st round. Laurent Fabius, Michel Rocard, Alain Juppé, Manuel Valls? They dreamed of it, but were not selected internally, failed primary, or were not chosen by the members of their parties.
Finally, and my list ends here: Bernard Cazeneuve to a lesser extent, Dominique de Villepin (for the 2nd time), but above all Gabriel Attal and therefore Édouard Philippe want to be on the poster for 2027.
The Chirac model. And what do the “philippists” say about these not-so-encouraging statistics? That it is not so much the time spent in Matignon that matters, but the experience and stature acquired, that a lot of water has flowed under the bridges since his departure from Matignon in 2020, that he is free after being loyal, that he founded his party in 2021, that he leads his city, and that he did not hesitate to call for Emmanuel Macron’s resignation!
Any resemblance to the trajectory and rupture according to Jacques Chirac is perfectly assumed. It’s his model. Even if it took him more than twenty years to enter the Elysée.
