In 2025, while the rest of the world saw an average 4% increase in international tourism, the United States experienced a concerning decrease of 5.4% over the year.
This decline, known as the “Trump slump,” is attributed to stricter immigration policies, unfriendly passport changes for LGBTQ+ individuals, enhanced border security, and currency fluctuations.
All eyes are now on the FIFA World Cup scheduled for June and July across the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The event was expected to draw football fans to the U.S., but proposed changes to the ESTA system and increased social media monitoring could dampen attendance significantly.
What is fueling the “Trump slump” in tourism to the United States?
Foreign visitors to the U.S. are decreasing across the board. The most significant decline is seen in Canadian tourism, dropping by 28% in January 2025 compared to the previous year.
While British visitors saw a slight increase of 0.5%, arrivals from France and Germany declined. This trend seems to continue in 2026, with European travelers down by 5.2% in January compared to the previous year.
Unpredictable foreign policy projects and on-ground tensions, such as threats of Greenland annexation and altercations involving ICE agents, are making foreign visitors more hesitant.
Stricter border controls also discourage visitations, especially following incidents last year where Europeans and Canadians were detained and questioned by authorities, along with reports of electronic device searches.
Additionally, the U.S. has implemented travel bans targeting dozens of countries, including four nations qualified for the World Cup – Iran, Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Haiti. They have also introduced a $250 “visa integrity fee” for non-immigrant tourist and business visas.
LGBTQ+ travelers are also avoiding the U.S. after President Trump established federal recognition of only two biological sexes: male and female. This decision raises concerns about travel in a country where local laws and social climate can lead to challenging situations.
A glimmer of hope with the World Cup?
The upcoming FIFA World Cup was expected to boost tourism significantly in the United States. Tourism Economics projected that the event would trigger a powerful resurgence in international travel, filling hotels and showcasing the economic benefits of such mega-events.
The data from February suggests that these hopes were overly optimistic, with a mere 0.8% increase in tourism following nine months of consecutive decline, as reported by the National Travel and Tourism Office. Flight reservations between Europe and the U.S. have declined by over 14% compared to the previous year, according to Forbes.
A new “travel obstacle” may come into effect, where future travelers may have to provide their last five years of social media history for Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) approval.
Despite expectations of additional arrivals during the World Cup, persisting challenges could hinder overall growth in tourism toward the U.S.
Hotels in host cities must prepare for potentially disappointing scenarios, with concerns about lackluster enthusiasm for FIFA-blocked room allocations. While the World Cup is likely to increase tourist numbers, it may leave a bitter feeling due to the missed opportunities it could have brought.
Overall, if the current trends persist, the total numbers may fall short of expectations, according to industry analysts.
