If climate shocks redefine local opportunities in this way, increases in the prices of natural resources increase the stakes of conflicts. Rises in oil and metal prices have often intensified violence in production areas, especially when extraction is capital-intensive and resources can be plundered. The green transition risks exacerbating these dynamics.
The demand for “transition minerals” (also known as critical minerals) is increasing rapidly, threatening to amplify this form of rapacity in certain regions, while fossil fuel revenues decrease elsewhere.
The precise mechanisms by which mining activity triggers conflicts also depend on the type of exploitation. In the case of artisanal mining, local employment plays a much more significant role than in industrial exploitation. Additionally, pollution from the extraction of these minerals – particularly water contamination – can also reduce agricultural yields far beyond mining sites. Livelihoods are thus lost, fueling the risks of conflict doubly.
Risk factors, thus, often overlap. Regions prone to drought are frequently above mineral deposits. Climate risks and resource risks could mutually exacerbate to trigger violence, although these complementarities are still poorly understood.
